T-minus 16 days
● Senate // Race file
[ Senate // New Mexico ]
New Mexico
Ben Ray Luján (D)vsLarry Marker (R)
incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D
99 in 100
Ben Ray Luján favored>99%
All but certain for Ben Ray Luján: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Ben Ray Luján up 16.6.
- Seat:Incumbent running
- Cook:Solid D
- Sabato:Safe D
- Inside Elections:Solid D
- Odds:Luján >99%
- Margin:Luján +15.7, give or take 5.1
- Polls:3, averaging Luján +16.6
- Latest poll:Research & Polling Inc., Oct 09, Luján +16.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Luján +15.7
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Luján +15.7
- Uncertainty
- 5.1 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Luján +9.2 to Luján +22.2 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Luján +16.6 across 3 polls, worth 0.9 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Luján +15.0 before any polls, give or take 7.0
How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 4.6 points on average, on balance underrating Republicans. Last time, 2024, they were off by 5.6 toward Republicans.
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Luján ahead is positive, Marker ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 3 public polls
- Research & Polling Inc.Luján +16Oct 09 · A+ · 1,125 LV53 to 37 · 66% weight
- SurveyUSALuján +18Sep 30 · A · 567 LV54 to 36 · 31% weight
- Research & Polling Inc.Luján +15Aug 28 · A+ · 516 LV53 to 38 · 3% weight
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | A+ | Oct 09 | 1,125LV | Luján +1653 to 37 | 66% |
| SurveyUSA | A | Sep 30 | 567LV | Luján +1854 to 36 | 31% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | A+ | Aug 28 | 516LV | Luján +1553 to 38 | 3% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Ben Ray Lujan (D), running for another term.
- On the ballot
- Ben Ray Luján (D) vs Larry Marker (R)
- Last time
- 2020: Ben Ray Lujan (D) 51.7, Mark Ronchetti (R) 45.6. Lujan by 6.1.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 45.9, Harris 51.9. Harris by 6.0.
- The raters
- Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Ben Ray Luján
Luján on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Larry Marker
Marker on Ballotpedia ↗