Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // South Carolina ]

South Carolina

Annie Andrews (D)vsDarline Graham (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Likely R

8 in 10

Darline Graham favored76%

Likely for Darline Graham: a 76 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Likely R
  • Sabato:Lean R
  • Inside Elections:Likely R
  • Odds:Graham 76%
  • Margin:Graham +4.5, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:5, averaging Graham +0.4
  • Latest poll:InsiderAdvantage, Sep 29, Graham +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Graham +4.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Graham +4.5
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Graham +11.0 to Andrews +2.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
Graham +0.4 across 5 polls, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Graham +8.2 before any polls, give or take 7.0

How polls have done here
9 Senate races here since 1998: the final polls missed by 3.6 points on average, with no steady lean. Last time, 2020, they were off by 7.3 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Andrews ahead is positive, Graham ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 5 public polls

  • InsiderAdvantageGraham +1
    Sep 29 · B+ · 1,200 LV45 to 46 · 56% weight
    adjusted Graham +0.2
  • Trafalgar GroupGraham +1.1
    Sep 25 · B · 1,087 LV42 to 43 · 26% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Andrews +1.0
  • InsiderAdvantageGraham +1.9
    Sep 09 · B+ · 1,200 LV43 to 45 · 14% weight
    adjusted Graham +1.1
  • Abacus DataGraham +13
    Aug 28 · unrated · 306 LV38 to 51 · 2% weight
    adjusted Graham +13.3
  • Impact ResearchTie
    Aug 24 · B/C · 700 LV41 to 41 · 2% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Graham +1.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Darline Graham (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Annie Andrews (D) vs Darline Graham (R, incumbent)
Last time
2020: Lindsey Graham (R) 54.5, Jaime Harrison (D) 44.2. Graham by 10.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.2, Harris 40.4. Trump by 17.9.
The raters
Cook Likely R · Sabato Lean R · Inside Elections Likely R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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