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T-minus 16 days

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● Senate // Race file

[ Senate // Wyoming ]

Wyoming

James Byrd (D)vsHarriet Hageman (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

99 in 100

Harriet Hageman favored>99%

All but certain for Harriet Hageman: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Hageman >99%
  • Margin:Hageman +37.3, give or take 8.0
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hageman +37.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 8.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hageman +37.3
Uncertainty
8.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hageman +47.6 to Hageman +27.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Hageman +37.3 before any polls, give or take 8.0

How polls have done here
7 Senate races here since 2006: the final polls missed by 12.1 points on average, on balance underrating Democrats. Last time, 2024, they were off by 3.9 toward Democrats.

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Byrd ahead is positive, Hageman ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Hageman +37.3: the state's partisan lean, an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 8.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Cynthia Lummis (R) is not running again. Open seat.
On the ballot
James Byrd (D) vs Harriet Hageman (R)
Last time
2020: Cynthia Lummis (R) 73.1, Merav Ben-David (D) 26.9. Lummis by 46.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 71.6, Harris 25.8. Trump by 45.8.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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