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T-minus 14 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Alaska ]

Alaska governor

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)vsBernadette Wilson (R)

open seat · Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tossup

9 in 10

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins favored88%

Very likely for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: a 88 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins up 10.9.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Lean D
  • Sabato:Lean D
  • Inside Elections:Tossup
  • Odds:Kreiss-Tomkins 88%
  • Margin:Kreiss-Tomkins +9.4, give or take 7.1
  • Polls:6, averaging Kreiss-Tomkins +10.9
  • Latest poll:Alaska Survey Research, Oct 18, Kreiss-Tomkins +10.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:14 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Kreiss-Tomkins +9.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Kreiss-Tomkins +9.4
Uncertainty
7.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Kreiss-Tomkins +0.3 to Kreiss-Tomkins +18.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
Kreiss-Tomkins +10.9 across 6 polls, worth 1.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Wilson +6.3 before any polls, give or take 24.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Kreiss-Tomkins ahead is positive, Wilson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 6 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Dunleavy (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs Bernadette Wilson (R). Also on the ballot: Dave Bronson, Treg Taylor
Last time
2022: Mike Dunleavy (R) 50.3, Les Gara (D) 24.2. Dunleavy by 26.1.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 54.5, Harris 41.4. Trump by 13.1.
The raters
Cook Lean D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tossup

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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