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T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Kansas ]

Kansas governor

Cindy Holscher (D)vsTy Masterson (R)

open seat · Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Tilt R

6 in 10

Ty Masterson favored65%

A slight edge for Ty Masterson: a 65 percent chance of winning. Polls: Ty Masterson up 3.4.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Lean R
  • Sabato:Lean R
  • Inside Elections:Tilt R
  • Odds:Masterson 65%
  • Margin:Masterson +2.5, give or take 5.4
  • Polls:7, averaging Masterson +3.4
  • Latest poll:YouGov, Oct 04, Masterson +3.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Masterson +2.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Masterson +2.5
Uncertainty
5.4 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Masterson +9.5 to Holscher +4.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
Masterson +3.4 across 7 polls, worth 1.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Masterson +1.5 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Holscher ahead is positive, Masterson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 7 public polls

  • YouGovMasterson +3
    Oct 04 · B · 2,252 LV44 to 47 · 47% weight
    adjusted Masterson +3.2
  • The New York Times/Siena UniversityMasterson +4.1
    Sep 30 · A · 605 LV44 to 49 · 27% weight
    adjusted Masterson +3.3
  • Wedgewood PollsMasterson +4
    Sep 24 · unrated · 500 LV48 to 52 · 8% weight
    adjusted Masterson +2.2
  • Global Strategy GroupHolscher +3
    Sep 16 · B/C · 800 LV49 to 46 · 2% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Holscher +0.1
  • Emerson CollegeMasterson +7.3
    Sep 16 · A · 750 LV43 to 51 · 11% weight
    adjusted Masterson +5.5
  • co/efficientMasterson +8
    Sep 10 · B · 915 LV43 to 51 · 5% weight
    adjusted Masterson +5.0
  • Global Strategy GroupHolscher +1
    Aug 16 · B/C · 600 LV47 to 46 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Masterson +1.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Laura Kelly (D) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Cindy Holscher (D) vs Ty Masterson (R)
Last time
2022: Laura Kelly (D) 49.5, Derek Schmidt (R) 47.3. Kelly by 2.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 57.2, Harris 41.0. Trump by 16.1.
The raters
Cook Lean R · Sabato Lean R · Inside Elections Tilt R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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