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T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Georgia ]

Georgia governor

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)vsRick Jackson (R)

open seat · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup

6 in 10

Keisha Lance Bottoms favored63%

A slight edge for Keisha Lance Bottoms: a 63 percent chance of winning. Polls: Rick Jackson up 1.7.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Tossup
  • Sabato:Tossup
  • Inside Elections:Tossup
  • Odds:Bottoms 63%
  • Margin:Bottoms +2.1, give or take 5.4
  • Polls:13, averaging Jackson +1.7
  • Latest poll:InsiderAdvantage, Oct 13, Jackson +2.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bottoms +2.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bottoms +2.1
Uncertainty
5.4 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Jackson +4.9 to Bottoms +9.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Jackson +1.7 across 13 polls, worth 1.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Bottoms +6.5 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bottoms ahead is positive, Jackson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 13 public polls

  • InsiderAdvantageJackson +2
    Oct 13 · B+ · 800 LV47 to 49 · 42% weight
    adjusted Jackson +2.2
  • Wedgewood PollsJackson +2
    Oct 03 · unrated · 600 LV49 to 51 · 21% weight
    adjusted Jackson +0.2
  • Big Data PollJackson +1
    Sep 23 · banned · 678 LV50 to 51 · 0% weight
    adjusted Jackson +0.1
  • InsiderAdvantageJackson +2
    Sep 23 · B+ · 1,200 LV46 to 48 · 13% weight
    adjusted Jackson +2.2
  • YouGovJackson +2
    Sep 18 · B · 3,299 LV44 to 46 · 23% weight
    adjusted Jackson +2.2
  • InsiderAdvantageJackson +0.1
    Aug 17 · B+ · 800 LV46 to 46 · 1% weight
    adjusted Jackson +0.3
  • Quantus InsightsBottoms +1.5
    Aug 01 · B/C · 815 LV46 to 45 · 0% weight
    adjusted Bottoms +3.0
  • Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchBottoms +2
    Jul 16 · B/C · 1,060 LV48 to 46 · 0% weight
  • State NavigateBottoms +7
    Jul 13 · unrated · 448 LV51 to 44 · 0% weight
  • WickJackson +0.5
    Jun 30 · B/C · 1,175 LV43 to 43 · 0% weight
  • Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchBottoms +5
    Jun 27 · A- · 1,002 RV52 to 47 · 0% weight
    adjusted Bottoms +5.2
  • Concord Public Opinion PartnersBottoms +15
    Jun 02 · A/B · 510 LV53 to 38 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Bottoms +12.0
  • Echelon InsightsBottoms +6
    Apr 09 · A- · 407 LV49 to 43 · 0% weight
    adjusted Bottoms +6.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Brian Kemp (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs Rick Jackson (R)
Last time
2022: Brian Kemp (R) 53.4, Stacey Abrams (D) 45.9. Kemp by 7.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.7, Harris 48.5. Trump by 2.2.
The raters
Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tossup

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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