Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Nevada ]

Nevada governor

Aaron Ford (D)vsJoe Lombardo (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tilt R

7 in 10

Aaron Ford favored73%

Likely for Aaron Ford: a 73 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Tossup
  • Sabato:Tossup
  • Inside Elections:Tilt R
  • Odds:Ford 73%
  • Margin:Ford +3.9, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:12, averaging Ford +0.9
  • Latest poll:Noble Predictive Insights, Sep 26, Lombardo +2.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ford +3.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Ford +3.9
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Lombardo +2.6 to Ford +10.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
Ford +0.9 across 12 polls, worth 0.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Ford +6.6 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ford ahead is positive, Lombardo ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 12 public polls

  • Noble Predictive InsightsLombardo +2
    Sep 26 · B+ · 708 LV40 to 42 · 74% weight
    adjusted Lombardo +0.1
  • Emerson CollegeFord +2.1
    Sep 08 · A · 680 LV44 to 42 · 26% weight
    adjusted Ford +4.0
  • Tarrance GroupLombardo +7
    Jul 29 · A/B · 550 LV43 to 50 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Lombardo +4.0
  • Public Policy PollingTie
    Jul 16 · B+ · 558 LV44 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Lombardo +1.3
  • Grassroots TargetingLombardo +12
    Jul 16 · unrated · 2,500 LV40 to 52 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Lombardo +9.0
  • Wedgewood PollsLombardo +3
    Jul 12 · unrated · 700 LV47 to 50 · 0% weight
    adjusted Lombardo +1.2
  • Public Opinion StrategiesLombardo +9
    Jun 29 · A · 600 LV42 to 51 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Lombardo +6.0
  • Global Strategy GroupLombardo +3
    May 11 · B/C · 700 LV42 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Lombardo +5.9
  • Noble Predictive InsightsLombardo +1
    Mar 13 · B+ · 845 RV38 to 39 · 0% weight
    adjusted Ford +0.9
  • Hart Research AssociatesLombardo +3
    Feb 17 · A- · 800 LV43 to 46 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Lombardo +4.8
  • Emerson CollegeTie
    Nov 18 · A · 800 RV41 to 41 · 0% weight
    adjusted Ford +1.9
  • Noble Predictive InsightsLombardo +3
    Oct 13 · B+ · 766 RV37 to 40 · 0% weight
    adjusted Lombardo +1.1

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Joe Lombardo (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Aaron Ford (D) vs Joe Lombardo (R, incumbent). Also on the ballot: Danielle Ford
Last time
2022: Joe Lombardo (R) 48.8, Steve Sisolak (D) 47.3. Lombardo by 1.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.6, Harris 47.5. Trump by 3.1.
The raters
Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tilt R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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