Live results here election night Nov 3 · 5 days
● Governor // Race file
[ Governor // California ]
California governor
Xavier Becerra (D)vsSteve Hilton (R)
open seat · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D
Democrat
Republican
99+ in 100
Xavier Becerra favored>99%
All but certain for Xavier Becerra: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Xavier Becerra up 22.6.
- Margin:Becerra +22.8, give or take 5.6
- Polls:17, averaging Becerra +22.6
- Latest poll:SurveyUSA, Oct 24, Becerra +22.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Becerra +22.8
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.6 points, counting a miss the whole country could share. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Becerra +22.8
- Uncertainty
- give or take 5.6 points: 4.3 from this race alone, plus a miss of about 3.6 that every race in the country could share
- Eight times in ten
- Becerra +15.7 to Becerra +29.9
- Poll average
- Becerra +22.6 across 17 polls, about as much information as 4 fresh polls
- Starting point
- Becerra +29.8 before any polls, give or take 24.0
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Becerra ahead is positive, Hilton ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // Loading
Reading the history
▸ What if the polls are wrong? // Replay a past miss
The forecast already allows for a miss the size of the last ten years. Replay one of them on this race and see what the number would be.
No extra polling error
Becerra 99+ in 100
margin Becerra +22.8
Dead on: this is the published number.
Only this panel moves. Everything else on the page stays on the published forecast.
▸ Polls // 17 public polls
- SurveyUSABecerra +22Oct 24 · A · 799 LV54 to 32 · 22% weightadjusted Becerra +22.1
- Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaBecerra +24Oct 22 · A/B · 1,086 LV61 to 37 · 17% weightadjusted Becerra +23.0
- McLaughlin & AssociatesBecerra +15.7Oct 20 · B/C · 800 LV55 to 39 · 10% weightadjusted Becerra +18.1
- Emerson CollegeBecerra +27.3Oct 19 · A · 1,000 LV64 to 36 · 24% weightadjusted Becerra +27.7
- ActiVoteBecerra +25.6Oct 16 · unrated · 400 LV63 to 37 · 6% weightadjusted Becerra +25.7
- TrueDotBecerra +20Oct 14 · B/C · 909 LV55 to 35 · 5% weight
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | A | Oct 24 | 799LV | Becerra +2254 to 32adjusted Becerra +22.1 | 22% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | A/B | Oct 22 | 1,086LV | Becerra +2461 to 37adjusted Becerra +23.0 | 17% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | B/C | Oct 20 | 800LV | Becerra +15.755 to 39adjusted Becerra +18.1 | 10% |
| Emerson College | A | Oct 19 | 1,000LV | Becerra +27.364 to 36adjusted Becerra +27.7 | 24% |
| ActiVote | unrated | Oct 16 | 400LV | Becerra +25.663 to 37adjusted Becerra +25.7 | 6% |
| TrueDot | B/C | Oct 14 | 909LV | Becerra +2055 to 35 | 5% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
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▸ Campaign money // State filings
Counting the campaign accounts…
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Gavin Newsom (D) is term limited. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Xavier Becerra (D) vs Steve Hilton (R)
- Last time
- 2022: Gavin Newsom (D) 59.2, Brian Dahle (R) 40.8. Newsom by 18.4.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
- The raters
- Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ The rules // Governors
Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. A backtest on 289 past governor races set those two widths; everything else comes from the Senate backtest. The rules on the math page.
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra grew up in Sacramento in a house his father, a construction worker, built himself.
Republican
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton was born in London to Hungarian parents and built his first political career in Britain, advising Prime Minister David Cameron.
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