Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the map

● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Oregon ]

Oregon governor

Tina Kotek (D)vsChristine Drazan (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Lean D

9 in 10

Tina Kotek favored97%

Very likely for Tina Kotek: a 97 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Lean D
  • Sabato:Lean D
  • Inside Elections:Lean D
  • Odds:Kotek 97%
  • Margin:Kotek +11.5, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:7, averaging Kotek +1.1
  • Latest poll:GBAO, Oct 04, Kotek +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Kotek +11.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Kotek +11.5
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Kotek +5.0 to Kotek +18.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
Kotek +1.1 across 7 polls, worth 1.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Kotek +20.7 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Kotek ahead is positive, Drazan ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 7 public polls

  • GBAOKotek +4
    Oct 04 · B/C · 800 LV46 to 42 · 40% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Kotek +1.9
  • DHM ResearchKotek +2
    Oct 01 · B/C · 549 LV46 to 44 · 26% weight
    adjusted Kotek +2.3
  • DHM ResearchDrazan +1
    Sep 27 · B/C · 915 LV46 to 47 · 26% weight
    adjusted Drazan +0.7
  • DHM ResearchDrazan +2
    Sep 09 · B/C · 600 LV43 to 45 · 7% weight
    adjusted Drazan +1.7
  • Public Opinion StrategiesDrazan +4
    Jun 24 · A · 600 RV44 to 48 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Drazan +1.0
  • Hoffman Research GroupTie
    May 12 · B/C · 603 LV45 to 45 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Kotek +3.0
  • FM3 ResearchKotek +5
    Feb 04 · B/C · 1,065 LV45 to 40 · 0% weight

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tina Kotek (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Tina Kotek (D, incumbent) vs Christine Drazan (R). Also on the ballot: Brett Smith
Last time
2022: Tina Kotek (D) 47.0, Christine Drazan (R) 43.6. Kotek by 3.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.0, Harris 55.3. Harris by 14.3.
The raters
Cook Lean D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Lean D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the map