Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 14 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Florida ]

Florida governor

David Jolly (D)vsByron Donalds (R)

open seat · Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Lean R

8 in 10

Byron Donalds favored79%

Likely for Byron Donalds: a 79 percent chance of winning. Polls: Byron Donalds up 4.3.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Lean R
  • Sabato:Lean R
  • Inside Elections:Lean R
  • Odds:Donalds 79%
  • Margin:Donalds +4.3, give or take 4.0
  • Polls:32, averaging Donalds +4.3
  • Latest poll:ActiVote, Oct 19, Donalds +3.4
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:14 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Donalds +4.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Donalds +4.3
Uncertainty
4.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Donalds +9.4 to Jolly +0.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Donalds +4.3 across 32 polls, worth 5.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Donalds +4.6 before any polls, give or take 24.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jolly ahead is positive, Donalds ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 32 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ron DeSantis (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
David Jolly (D) vs Byron Donalds (R). Also on the ballot: Dean Abrams, Charles Burkett, Jeffrey Datto, Moe Dimanche, Scott Jewett, Frank Russo
Last time
2022: Ron DeSantis (R) 59.4, Charlie Crist (D) 40.0. DeSantis by 19.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
The raters
Cook Lean R · Sabato Lean R · Inside Elections Lean R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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