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T-minus 14 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Iowa ]

Iowa governor

Rob Sand (D)vsZach Lahn (R)

open seat · Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

9 in 10

Rob Sand favored86%

Very likely for Rob Sand: a 86 percent chance of winning. Polls: Rob Sand up 7.5.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Lean D
  • Sabato:Lean D
  • Inside Elections:Tilt D
  • Odds:Sand 86%
  • Margin:Sand +6.9, give or take 5.3
  • Polls:21, averaging Sand +7.5
  • Latest poll:co/efficient, Oct 19, Sand +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:14 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Sand +6.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.3 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Sand +6.9
Uncertainty
5.3 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Sand +0.1 to Sand +13.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Sand +7.5 across 21 polls, worth 4.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Lahn +4.5 before any polls, give or take 24.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Sand ahead is positive, Lahn ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 21 public polls

  • co/efficientSand +4
    Oct 19 · B · 863 LV49 to 45 · 18% weight
    adjusted Sand +6.9
  • National Public AffairsSand +5
    Oct 12 · B/C · 678 LV50 to 45 · 6% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Sand +7.9
  • YouGovSand +6
    Oct 12 · B · 2,244 LV50 to 44 · 18% weight
  • Marist UniversitySand +7
    Oct 11 · A- · 1,100 LV52 to 45 · 15% weight
    adjusted Sand +5.8
  • Emerson CollegeSand +3.7
    Oct 06 · A · 650 LV49 to 45 · 7% weight
    adjusted Sand +5.3
  • CNN/SSRSSand +9
    Oct 05 · unrated · 801 LV51 to 42 · 7% weight
    adjusted Sand +8.0

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kim Reynolds (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Rob Sand (D) vs Zach Lahn (R). Also on the ballot: Sondra Wilson
Last time
2022: Kim Reynolds (R) 58.0, Deidre DeJear (D) 39.5. Reynolds by 18.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.7, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.2.
The raters
Cook Lean D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tilt D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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