Live results here election night Nov 3 · 5 days
● Governor // Race file
[ Governor // Kansas ]
Kansas governor
Cindy Holscher (D)vsTy Masterson (R)
open seat · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Tilt R
Democrat
Republican
78 in 100
Ty Masterson favored78%
Likely for Ty Masterson: a 78 percent chance of winning. Polls: Ty Masterson up 5.1.
- Margin:Masterson +4.9, give or take 6.3
- Polls:8, averaging Masterson +5.1
- Latest poll:CNN/SSRS, Oct 26, Masterson +5.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Masterson +4.9
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.3 points, counting a miss the whole country could share. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Masterson +4.9
- Uncertainty
- give or take 6.3 points: 5.2 from this race alone, plus a miss of about 3.6 that every race in the country could share
- Eight times in ten
- Masterson +13.0 to Holscher +3.2
- Poll average
- Masterson +5.1 across 8 polls, about as much information as 2 fresh polls
- Starting point
- Masterson +1.5 before any polls, give or take 24.0
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Holscher ahead is positive, Masterson ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // Loading
Reading the history
▸ What if the polls are wrong? // Replay a past miss
The forecast already allows for a miss the size of the last ten years. Replay one of them on this race and see what the number would be.
No extra polling error
Masterson 78 in 100
margin Masterson +4.9
Dead on: this is the published number.
Only this panel moves. Everything else on the page stays on the published forecast.
▸ Polls // 8 public polls
- CNN/SSRSMasterson +5Oct 26 · unrated · 838 LV45 to 50 · 46% weightadjusted Masterson +6.4
- Oct 21 · B/C · 600 LV47 to 47 · 10% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Masterson +4.3
- YouGovMasterson +3Oct 04 · B · 2,252 LV44 to 47 · 22% weightadjusted Masterson +3.2
- The New York Times/Siena UniversityMasterson +4.1Sep 30 · A · 605 LV44 to 49 · 13% weightadjusted Masterson +4.0
- Global Strategy GroupHolscher +3Sep 16 · B/C · 800 LV49 to 46 · 1% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Masterson +1.3
- Emerson CollegeMasterson +7.3Sep 16 · A · 750 LV43 to 51 · 6% weightadjusted Masterson +6.9
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | unrated | Oct 26 | 838LV | Masterson +545 to 50adjusted Masterson +6.4 | 46% |
| Global Strategy GroupDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Oct 21 | 600LV | Tie47 to 47adjusted Masterson +4.3 | 10% |
| YouGov | B | Oct 04 | 2,252LV | Masterson +344 to 47adjusted Masterson +3.2 | 22% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Sep 30 | 605LV | Masterson +4.144 to 49adjusted Masterson +4.0 | 13% |
| Global Strategy GroupDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Sep 16 | 800LV | Holscher +349 to 46adjusted Masterson +1.3 | 1% |
| Emerson College | A | Sep 16 | 750LV | Masterson +7.343 to 51adjusted Masterson +6.9 | 6% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
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▸ Campaign money // State filings
Counting the campaign accounts…
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Laura Kelly (D) is term limited. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Cindy Holscher (D) vs Ty Masterson (R)
- Last time
- 2022: Laura Kelly (D) 49.5, Derek Schmidt (R) 47.3. Kelly by 2.2.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 57.2, Harris 41.0. Trump by 16.1.
- The raters
- Cook Tossup · Sabato Lean R · Inside Elections Tilt R
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ The rules // Governors
Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. A backtest on 289 past governor races set those two widths; everything else comes from the Senate backtest. The rules on the math page.
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Cindy HolscherCindy Holscher worked at Sprint and as a substitute teacher before becoming a Kansas legislator.
Republican
Ty MastersonTy Masterson and his wife, Marlo, raised six children.
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