T-minus 11 days
● Governor // Race file
[ Governor // Maine ]
Maine governor
Hannah Pingree (D)vsBobby Charles (R)
open seat · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Solid D
98 in 100
Hannah Pingree favored98%
All but certain for Hannah Pingree: a 98 percent chance of winning. Polls: Hannah Pingree up 11.0.
- Margin:Pingree +11.3, give or take 4.4
- Polls:16, averaging Pingree +11.0
- Latest poll:Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research, Oct 20, Pingree +10.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.4
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Pingree +11.3
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Pingree +11.3
- Uncertainty
- give or take 4.4 points, the usual size of a miss
- Likely range
- Pingree +5.7 to Pingree +16.9 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Pingree +11.0 across 16 polls, about as much information as 3 fresh polls
- Starting point
- Pingree +18.8 before any polls, give or take 24.0
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pingree ahead is positive, Charles ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 16 public polls
- Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchPingree +10Oct 20 · A- · 1,514 LV49 to 39 · 30% weightadjusted Pingree +10.5
- Suffolk UniversityPingree +11Oct 11 · A- · 500 LV49 to 38 · 16% weightadjusted Pingree +9.3
- Oct 05 · B/C · 800 LV49 to 36 · 9% weight
- Marist UniversityPingree +12Oct 04 · A- · 1,505 RV52 to 40 · 16% weightadjusted Pingree +11.0
- YouGovPingree +12Oct 01 · B · 1,133 LV56 to 44 · 6% weightadjusted Pingree +11.6
- co/efficientPingree +9Sep 30 · B · 1,240 LV47 to 38 · 8% weightadjusted Pingree +12.0
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | A- | Oct 20 | 1,514LV | Pingree +1049 to 39adjusted Pingree +10.5 | 30% |
| Suffolk University | A- | Oct 11 | 500LV | Pingree +1149 to 38adjusted Pingree +9.3 | 16% |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | B/C | Oct 05 | 800LV | Pingree +1349 to 36 | 9% |
| Marist University | A- | Oct 04 | 1,505RV | Pingree +1252 to 40adjusted Pingree +11.0 | 16% |
| YouGov | B | Oct 01 | 1,133LV | Pingree +1256 to 44adjusted Pingree +11.6 | 6% |
| co/efficient | B | Sep 30 | 1,240LV | Pingree +947 to 38adjusted Pingree +12.0 | 8% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Campaign money // State filings
Counting the campaign accounts…
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Janet Mills (D) is term limited. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Hannah Pingree (D) vs Bobby Charles (R). Also on the ballot: Rick Bennett
- Last time
- 2022: Janet Mills (D) 55.7, Paul LePage (R) 42.4. Mills by 13.3.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 45.5, Harris 52.4. Harris by 6.9.
- The raters
- Cook Solid D · Sabato Likely D · Inside Elections Solid D
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ The rules // Governors
Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. A backtest on 289 past governor races set those two widths; everything else comes from the Senate backtest. The rules on the math page.
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Hannah Pingree
Pingree on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Bobby Charles
Charles on Ballotpedia ↗