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Live results Nov 3 · 5 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Minnesota ]

Minnesota governor

Amy Klobuchar (D)vsLisa Demuth (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Likely D

Democrat

Republican

99 in 100

Amy Klobuchar favored99%

All but certain for Amy Klobuchar: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Amy Klobuchar up 12.9.

  • Margin:Klobuchar +13.0, give or take 5.6
  • Polls:13, averaging Klobuchar +12.9
  • Latest poll:State Navigate, Oct 28, Klobuchar +10.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Klobuchar +13.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.6 points, counting a miss the whole country could share. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Klobuchar +13.0
Uncertainty
give or take 5.6 points: 4.3 from this race alone, plus a miss of about 3.6 that every race in the country could share
Eight times in ten
Klobuchar +5.8 to Klobuchar +20.2
Poll average
Klobuchar +12.9 across 13 polls, about as much information as 3 fresh polls
Starting point
Klobuchar +15.2 before any polls, give or take 24.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Klobuchar ahead is positive, Demuth ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // Loading

Reading the history

▸ What if the polls are wrong? // Replay a past miss

The forecast already allows for a miss the size of the last ten years. Replay one of them on this race and see what the number would be.

No extra polling error

Repeat a real miss
◀ Polls too kind to DemocratsPolls too kind to Republicans ▶

Klobuchar 99 in 100

margin Klobuchar +13.0

Dead on: this is the published number.

Only this panel moves. Everything else on the page stays on the published forecast.

▸ Polls // 13 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tim Walz (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Lisa Demuth (R). Also on the ballot: Steven Young
Last time
2022: Tim Walz (D) 52.3, Scott Jensen (R) 44.6. Walz by 7.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.7, Harris 50.9. Harris by 4.2.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Likely D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. A backtest on 289 past governor races set those two widths; everything else comes from the Senate backtest. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

▸ More from Minnesota // Same ballot

Counting

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Oregon governor

Kotek 64% · a slight edge

The three governor races nearest a coin flip today.

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