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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Nevada ]

Nevada governor

Aaron Ford (D)vsJoe Lombardo (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tilt R

a coin flip

Too close to callFord 52%

The model gives Aaron Ford a 52 percent chance and Joe Lombardo 48 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Margin:Ford +0.4, give or take 6.7
  • Polls:11, averaging Lombardo +0.3
  • Latest poll:Noble Predictive Insights, Sep 26, Lombardo +2.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.4

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ford +0.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.7 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Ford +0.4
Uncertainty
give or take 6.7 points, the usual size of a miss
Likely range
Lombardo +8.2 to Ford +9.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
Lombardo +0.3 across 11 polls, about as much information as 1 fresh polls
Starting point
Ford +6.8 before any polls, give or take 21.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ford ahead is positive, Lombardo ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 11 public polls

  • Noble Predictive InsightsLombardo +2
    Sep 26 · B+ · 708 LV40 to 42 · 71% weight
    adjusted Lombardo +1.3
  • Emerson CollegeFord +2.1
    Sep 08 · A · 680 LV44 to 42 · 29% weight
    adjusted Ford +2.5
  • Tarrance GroupLombardo +7
    Jul 29 · A/B · 550 LV43 to 50 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Lombardo +4.0
  • Public Policy PollingTie
    Jul 16 · B+ · 558 LV44 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Lombardo +3.2
  • Grassroots TargetingLombardo +12
    Jul 16 · unrated · 2,500 LV40 to 52 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Lombardo +9.0
  • Public Opinion StrategiesLombardo +9
    Jun 29 · A · 600 LV42 to 51 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Lombardo +6.0

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Joe Lombardo (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Aaron Ford (D) vs Joe Lombardo (R, incumbent). Also on the ballot: Danielle Ford
Last time
2022: Joe Lombardo (R) 48.8, Steve Sisolak (D) 47.3. Lombardo by 1.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.6, Harris 47.5. Trump by 3.1.
The raters
Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tilt R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. A backtest on 289 past governor races set those two widths; everything else comes from the Senate backtest. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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