Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Vermont ]

Vermont governor

Amanda Janoo (D)vsPhil Scott (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Likely R

6 in 10

Phil Scott favored64%

A slight edge for Phil Scott: a 64 percent chance of winning. Polls: Phil Scott up 3.1.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Likely R
  • Sabato:Likely R
  • Inside Elections:Likely R
  • Odds:Scott 64%
  • Margin:Scott +2.2, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:5, averaging Scott +3.1
  • Latest poll:State Navigate, Oct 04, Scott +3.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Scott +2.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Scott +2.2
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Scott +8.7 to Janoo +4.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Scott +3.1 across 5 polls, worth 0.7 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Scott +1.3 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Janoo ahead is positive, Scott ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 5 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Phil Scott (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Amanda Janoo (D) vs Phil Scott (R, incumbent). Also on the ballot: June Goodband, Brian Judd, Dean Roy
Last time
2024: Phil Scott (R) 73.4, Esther Charlestin (D) 21.8. Scott by 51.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 32.3, Harris 63.8. Harris by 31.5.
The raters
Cook Likely R · Sabato Likely R · Inside Elections Likely R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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