T-minus 14 days
● Governor // Race file
[ Governor // Ohio ]
Ohio governor
Amy Acton (D)vsVivek Ramaswamy (R)
open seat · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup
7 in 10
Amy Acton favored71%
Likely for Amy Acton: a 71 percent chance of winning. Polls: Amy Acton up 3.9.
- Office:Open seat
- Cook:Tossup
- Sabato:Tossup
- Inside Elections:Tossup
- Odds:Acton 71%
- Margin:Acton +3.5, give or take 5.3
- Polls:30, averaging Acton +3.9
- Latest poll:ActiVote, Oct 19, Ramaswamy +2.8
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:14 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Acton +3.5
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.3 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Acton +3.5
- Uncertainty
- 5.3 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Ramaswamy +3.3 to Acton +10.3 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Acton +3.9 across 30 polls, worth 4.2 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Ramaswamy +4.6 before any polls, give or take 24.0
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Acton ahead is positive, Ramaswamy ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 30 public polls
- ActiVoteRamaswamy +2.8Oct 19 · unrated · 400 LV49 to 51 · 14% weight
- Marist UniversityActon +7Oct 18 · A- · 1,176 LV50 to 43 · 28% weightadjusted Acton +5.8
- Oct 09 · unrated · 1,000 LV50 to 44 · 6% weightadjusted Acton +8.1
- co/efficientRamaswamy +2Oct 06 · B · 925 LV43 to 45 · 12% weightadjusted Acton +0.9
- CNN/SSRSActon +8Oct 05 · unrated · 760 LV50 to 42 · 7% weightadjusted Acton +7.0
- The New York Times/Siena UniversityActon +3.9Oct 01 · A · 616 LV49 to 45 · 7% weightadjusted Acton +4.8
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | unrated | Oct 19 | 400LV | Ramaswamy +2.849 to 51 | 14% |
| Marist University | A- | Oct 18 | 1,176LV | Acton +750 to 43adjusted Acton +5.8 | 28% |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | unrated | Oct 09 | 1,000LV | Acton +650 to 44adjusted Acton +8.1 | 6% |
| co/efficient | B | Oct 06 | 925LV | Ramaswamy +243 to 45adjusted Acton +0.9 | 12% |
| CNN/SSRS | unrated | Oct 05 | 760LV | Acton +850 to 42adjusted Acton +7.0 | 7% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Oct 01 | 616LV | Acton +3.949 to 45adjusted Acton +4.8 | 7% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Campaign money // State filings
Counting the campaign accounts…
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Mike DeWine (R) is term limited. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Amy Acton (D) vs Vivek Ramaswamy (R). Also on the ballot: Donald Kissick
- Last time
- 2022: Mike DeWine (R) 62.4, Nan Whaley (D) 37.4. DeWine by 25.0.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
- The raters
- Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tossup
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ The rules // Governors
Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Amy Acton
Acton on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Vivek Ramaswamy
Ramaswamy on Ballotpedia ↗