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T-minus 15 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // South Dakota ]

South Dakota governor

Daniel P. Ahlers (D)vsLarry Rhoden (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

99 in 100

Larry Rhoden favored>99%

All but certain for Larry Rhoden: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Larry Rhoden up 19.0.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Rhoden >99%
  • Margin:Rhoden +19.1, give or take 7.0
  • Polls:2, averaging Rhoden +19.0
  • Latest poll:Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc., Oct 14, Rhoden +20.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:15 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Rhoden +19.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Rhoden +19.1
Uncertainty
7.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Rhoden +28.0 to Rhoden +10.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Rhoden +19.0 across 2 polls, worth 0.7 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Rhoden +19.2 before any polls, give or take 21.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ahlers ahead is positive, Rhoden ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Larry Rhoden (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Daniel P. Ahlers (D) vs Larry Rhoden (R, incumbent)
Last time
2022: Kristi Noem (R) 62.0, Jamie Smith (D) 35.2. Noem by 26.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 63.4, Harris 34.2. Trump by 29.2.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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