T-minus 16 days
● Governor // Race file
[ Governor // Alaska ]
Alaska governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)vsBernadette Wilson (R)
open seat · Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tossup
9 in 10
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins favored91%
Very likely for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: a 91 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins up 21.5.
- Office:Open seat
- Cook:Lean D
- Sabato:Lean D
- Inside Elections:Tossup
- Odds:Kreiss-Tomkins 91%
- Margin:Kreiss-Tomkins +8.7, give or take 5.4
- Polls:5, averaging Kreiss-Tomkins +21.5
- Latest poll:Alaska Survey Research, Oct 03, Kreiss-Tomkins +21.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Kreiss-Tomkins +8.7
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Kreiss-Tomkins +8.7
- Uncertainty
- 5.4 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Kreiss-Tomkins +1.7 to Kreiss-Tomkins +15.7 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Kreiss-Tomkins +21.5 across 5 polls, worth 0.9 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Wilson +6.3 before any polls, give or take 8.0
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Kreiss-Tomkins ahead is positive, Wilson ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 5 public polls
- Alaska Survey ResearchKreiss-Tomkins +21Oct 03 · A/B · 1,512 LV48 to 27 · 43% weight
- The New York Times/Siena UniversityKreiss-Tomkins +20.2Oct 01 · A · 504 LV40 to 20 · 38% weightadjusted Kreiss-Tomkins +21.0
- co/efficientKreiss-Tomkins +23Sep 17 · B · 799 LV43 to 20 · 12% weightadjusted Kreiss-Tomkins +26.0
- Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchKreiss-Tomkins +20Sep 11 · B/C · 800 LV40 to 20 · 7% weight
- Alaska Survey ResearchWilson +6.3Jul 01 · A/B16 to 22 · 0% weight
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Oct 03 | 1,512LV | Kreiss-Tomkins +2148 to 27 | 43% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Oct 01 | 504LV | Kreiss-Tomkins +20.240 to 20adjusted Kreiss-Tomkins +21.0 | 38% |
| co/efficient | B | Sep 17 | 799LV | Kreiss-Tomkins +2343 to 20adjusted Kreiss-Tomkins +26.0 | 12% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | B/C | Sep 11 | 800LV | Kreiss-Tomkins +2040 to 20 | 7% |
| Alaska Survey Research | A/B | Jul 01 | n/aLV | Wilson +6.316 to 22 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Mike Dunleavy (R) is term limited. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs Bernadette Wilson (R). Also on the ballot: Dave Bronson, Treg Taylor
- Last time
- 2022: Mike Dunleavy (R) 50.3, Les Gara (D) 24.2. Dunleavy by 26.1.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 54.5, Harris 41.4. Trump by 13.1.
- The raters
- Cook Lean D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tossup
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ The rules // Governors
Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Kreiss-Tomkins on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Bernadette Wilson
Wilson on Ballotpedia ↗