Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Alabama ]

Alabama governor

Doug Jones (D)vsTommy Tuberville (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

99 in 100

Tommy Tuberville favored>99%

All but certain for Tommy Tuberville: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Tommy Tuberville up 10.0.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Tuberville >99%
  • Margin:Tuberville +15.6, give or take 5.4
  • Polls:3, averaging Tuberville +10.0
  • Latest poll:RMG Research, Sep 25, Tuberville +13.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Tuberville +15.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Tuberville +15.6
Uncertainty
5.4 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Tuberville +22.6 to Tuberville +8.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Tuberville +10.0 across 3 polls, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Tuberville +22.2 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jones ahead is positive, Tuberville ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • RMG ResearchTuberville +13
    Sep 25 · B · 800 RV37 to 50 · 100% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Tuberville +10.0
  • yes. every kid. foundation.Tuberville +8
    Jul 11 · unrated · 601 LV41 to 49 · 0% weight
  • Cygnal PoliticalTuberville +18.5
    Nov 13 · A · 605 LV34 to 53 · 0% weight
    adjusted Tuberville +17.2

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kay Ivey (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Doug Jones (D) vs Tommy Tuberville (R)
Last time
2022: Kay Ivey (R) 66.9, Yolanda Flowers (D) 29.2. Ivey by 37.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.6, Harris 34.1. Trump by 30.5.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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