Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Arkansas ]

Arkansas governor

Fred Love (D)vsSarah Huckabee Sanders (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

9 in 10

Sarah Huckabee Sanders favored98%

All but certain for Sarah Huckabee Sanders: a 98 percent chance of winning. Polls: Sarah Huckabee Sanders up 5.0.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Sanders 98%
  • Margin:Sanders +13.1, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:1, averaging Sanders +5.0
  • Latest poll:Hendrix College, Aug 12, Sanders +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Sanders +13.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Sanders +13.1
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Sanders +19.6 to Sanders +6.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Sanders +5.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Sanders +20.4 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Love ahead is positive, Sanders ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Fred Love (D) vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R, incumbent). Also on the ballot: Colt Shelby
Last time
2022: Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) 63.0, Chris Jones (D) 35.2. Sanders by 27.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 33.6. Trump by 30.6.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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