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T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Arizona ]

Arizona governor

Katie Hobbs (D)vsAndy Biggs (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

9 in 10

Katie Hobbs favored92%

Very likely for Katie Hobbs: a 92 percent chance of winning. Polls: Katie Hobbs up 8.5.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Lean D
  • Sabato:Lean D
  • Inside Elections:Tilt D
  • Odds:Hobbs 92%
  • Margin:Hobbs +9.0, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:22, averaging Hobbs +8.5
  • Latest poll:GrayHouse, Oct 08, Hobbs +6.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hobbs +9.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hobbs +9.0
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hobbs +2.5 to Hobbs +15.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
Hobbs +8.5 across 22 polls, worth 1.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Hobbs +9.4 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hobbs ahead is positive, Biggs ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 22 public polls

  • GrayHouseHobbs +6
    Oct 08 · unrated · 550 LV50 to 44 · 11% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hobbs +9.0
  • HighGroundHobbs +16.8
    Oct 08 · B/C · 400 LV51 to 34 · 21% weight
  • WickHobbs +5.7
    Oct 06 · B/C · 1,513 LV49 to 43 · 62% weight
  • NextGenPHobbs +1.5
    Aug 19 · unrated · 1,378 RV39 to 38 · 1% weight
  • HighGroundHobbs +15.2
    Aug 18 · B/C · 400 LV50 to 34 · 1% weight
  • Quantus InsightsHobbs +5.9
    Aug 17 · B/C · 780 LV49 to 43 · 1% weight
    adjusted Hobbs +7.4
  • Kreate StrategiesHobbs +5
    Aug 16 · unrated · 900 LV45 to 40 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hobbs +8.2
  • Noble Predictive InsightsHobbs +13
    Aug 13 · B+ · 923 LV48 to 35 · 1% weight
    adjusted Hobbs +14.9
  • Stealth AnalyticsHobbs +5
    Aug 13 · unrated · 530 LV43 to 38 · 1% weight
  • GrayHouseHobbs +4
    Aug 11 · unrated · 600 LV49 to 45 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hobbs +7.0
  • Tarrance GroupHobbs +4
    Jul 30 · A/B · 600 LV52 to 48 · 0% weight
  • Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchHobbs +8
    Jul 28 · B/C · 913 LV52 to 44 · 0% weight
  • Noble Predictive InsightsHobbs +4
    May 07 · B+ · 996 RV41 to 37 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hobbs +5.9
  • TIPP InsightsHobbs +10.8
    Apr 24 · A · 1,159 LV48 to 38 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hobbs +10.9
  • Noble Predictive InsightsHobbs +5
    Feb 26 · B+ · 1,023 RV42 to 37 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hobbs +6.9
  • NextGenPHobbs +19
    Dec 17 · unrated · 2,725 RV51 to 32 · 0% weight
  • Emerson CollegeHobbs +0.7
    Nov 10 · A · 850 RV44 to 43 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hobbs +2.6
  • Noble Predictive InsightsHobbs +2
    Aug 18 · B+ · 948 RV39 to 37 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hobbs +3.9
  • Noble Predictive InsightsHobbs +2
    May 16 · B+ · 1,026 RV40 to 38 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hobbs +3.9
  • Pulse Decision ScienceHobbs +4
    Apr 09 · unrated · 501 LV46 to 42 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hobbs +7.0
  • Noble Predictive InsightsHobbs +2
    Feb 13 · B+ · 1,006 RV40 to 38 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hobbs +3.9
  • Kreate StrategiesBiggs +1
    Feb 07 · unrated · 924 LV43 to 44 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hobbs +2.2

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Katie Hobbs (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Katie Hobbs (D, incumbent) vs Andy Biggs (R). Also on the ballot: Teri Hourihan, Risa Lombardo
Last time
2022: Katie Hobbs (D) 50.3, Kari Lake (R) 49.7. Hobbs by 0.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 52.2, Harris 46.7. Trump by 5.5.
The raters
Cook Lean D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tilt D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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