T-minus 16 days
● Governor // Race file
[ Governor // California ]
California governor
Xavier Becerra (D)vsSteve Hilton (R)
open seat · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D
99 in 100
Xavier Becerra favored>99%
All but certain for Xavier Becerra: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Xavier Becerra up 19.7.
- Office:Open seat
- Cook:Solid D
- Sabato:Safe D
- Inside Elections:Solid D
- Odds:Becerra >99%
- Margin:Becerra +24.3, give or take 5.4
- Polls:12, averaging Becerra +19.7
- Latest poll:ActiVote, Oct 16, Becerra +25.6
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Becerra +24.3
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Becerra +24.3
- Uncertainty
- 5.4 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Becerra +17.3 to Becerra +31.3 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Becerra +19.7 across 12 polls, worth 1.9 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Becerra +29.7 before any polls, give or take 8.0
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Becerra ahead is positive, Hilton ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 12 public polls
- ActiVoteBecerra +25.6Oct 16 · unrated · 400 LV63 to 37 · 28% weight
- Manhattan InstituteBecerra +18Oct 01 · unrated · 1,000 LV57 to 39 · 15% weight
- IVC MediaBecerra +10Sep 28 · unrated · 2,906 LV48 to 38 · 21% weight
- Sep 20 · A/B · 4,512 LV58 to 33 · 12% weightadjusted Becerra +24.5
- SurveyUSABecerra +22Sep 20 · A · 742 LV55 to 33 · 12% weightadjusted Becerra +21.2
- TrueDotBecerra +18Sep 14 · B/C · 1,983 LV54 to 36 · 6% weight
- Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaBecerra +22Sep 10 · A/B · 1,098 LV60 to 38 · 5% weight
- Aug 09 · A/B · 2,310 LV55 to 37 · 1% weightadjusted Becerra +17.5
- Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaBecerra +25Jul 06 · A/B · 1,003 LV61 to 36 · 0% weight
- Kreate StrategiesBecerra +25Jun 17 · unrated · 900 RV58 to 33 · 0% weightadjusted Becerra +25.2
- May 26 · unrated · 735 LV58 to 35 · 0% weight
- May 24 · A/B · 8,578 RV52 to 31 · 0% weightadjusted Becerra +20.5
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | unrated | Oct 16 | 400LV | Becerra +25.663 to 37 | 28% |
| Manhattan Institute | unrated | Oct 01 | 1,000LV | Becerra +1857 to 39 | 15% |
| IVC Media | unrated | Sep 28 | 2,906LV | Becerra +1048 to 38 | 21% |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | A/B | Sep 20 | 4,512LV | Becerra +2558 to 33adjusted Becerra +24.5 | 12% |
| SurveyUSA | A | Sep 20 | 742LV | Becerra +2255 to 33adjusted Becerra +21.2 | 12% |
| TrueDot | B/C | Sep 14 | 1,983LV | Becerra +1854 to 36 | 6% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | A/B | Sep 10 | 1,098LV | Becerra +2260 to 38 | 5% |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | A/B | Aug 09 | 2,310LV | Becerra +1855 to 37adjusted Becerra +17.5 | 1% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | A/B | Jul 06 | 1,003LV | Becerra +2561 to 36 | 0% |
| Kreate Strategies | unrated | Jun 17 | 900RV | Becerra +2558 to 33adjusted Becerra +25.2 | 0% |
| University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona | unrated | May 26 | 735LV | Becerra +2358 to 35 | 0% |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | A/B | May 24 | 8,578RV | Becerra +2152 to 31adjusted Becerra +20.5 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Gavin Newsom (D) is term limited. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Xavier Becerra (D) vs Steve Hilton (R)
- Last time
- 2022: Gavin Newsom (D) 59.2, Brian Dahle (R) 40.8. Newsom by 18.4.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
- The raters
- Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ The rules // Governors
Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Xavier Becerra
Becerra on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Steve Hilton
Hilton on Ballotpedia ↗