Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Colorado ]

Colorado governor

Phil Weiser (D)vsVictor Marx (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Phil Weiser favored>99%

All but certain for Phil Weiser: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Weiser >99%
  • Margin:Weiser +23.1, give or take 8.0
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Weiser +23.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 8.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Weiser +23.1
Uncertainty
8.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Weiser +12.8 to Weiser +33.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Weiser +23.1 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Weiser ahead is positive, Marx ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Weiser +23.1: the state's partisan lean, an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 8.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jared Polis (D) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Phil Weiser (D) vs Victor Marx (R). Also on the ballot: Stephen Hamilton, Greg Lopez, Eric Mulder, Jeff Peckman, Erik Underwood
Last time
2022: Jared Polis (D) 58.5, Heidi Ganahl (R) 39.2. Polis by 19.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.1, Harris 54.1. Harris by 11.0.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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