Florida governor

David Jolly (D)vsByron Donalds (R)

open seat · Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Lean R

8 in 10

Byron Donalds favored75%

Likely for Byron Donalds: a 75 percent chance of winning. Polls: Byron Donalds up 3.5.

Office:Open seat
Cook:Lean R
Sabato:Lean R
Inside Elections:Lean R
Odds:Donalds 75%
Margin:Donalds +3.9, give or take 4.5
Polls:30, averaging Donalds +3.5
Latest poll:Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, Oct 11, Donalds +7.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Donalds +3.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Donalds +3.9
Uncertainty: 4.5 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Donalds +9.6 to Jolly +1.8 (80 percent)
Poll average: Donalds +3.5 across 30 polls, worth 4.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Donalds +4.6 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jolly ahead is positive, Donalds ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 30 public polls

Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesDonalds +7
Oct 11 · A/B · 1,200 LV39 to 46 · 13% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Donalds +4.0
MDW CommunicationsDonalds +2.1
Oct 10 · unrated · 2,351 LV44 to 46 · 15% weight
Change ResearchTie
Oct 10 · C+ · 920 LV47 to 47 · 7% weight
Partisan sponsoradjusted Donalds +2.6
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchDonalds +11
Oct 09 · B/C · 716 LV41 to 52 · 8% weight
adjusted Donalds +8.6
St. Pete PollsDonalds +0.1
Oct 07 · C+ · 836 LV45 to 45 · 8% weight
YouGovDonalds +2
Oct 05 · B · 3,813 LV45 to 47 · 24% weight
adjusted Donalds +2.2
Targoz Market ResearchDonalds +10
Oct 04 · B- · 849 LV42 to 52 · 5% weight
adjusted Donalds +7.6
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.Donalds +7
Oct 01 · A- · 625 LV41 to 48 · 11% weight
adjusted Donalds +6.2
Change ResearchJolly +2
Sep 27 · C+ · 1,063 LV48 to 46 · 3% weight
Partisan sponsoradjusted Donalds +0.6
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchDonalds +12
Sep 21 · B/C · 830 LV39 to 51 · 2% weight
adjusted Donalds +9.6
St. Pete PollsDonalds +0.1
Sep 17 · C+ · 913 LV43 to 44 · 2% weight
Change ResearchJolly +3
Sep 09 · C+ · 1,107 LV47 to 44 · 1% weight
Partisan sponsoradjusted Jolly +0.4
Hart Research AssociatesJolly +1
Aug 13 · A- · 600 LV46 to 45 · <1% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Donalds +0.8
Targoz Market ResearchDonalds +7
Jul 26 · B- · 1,026 LV38 to 45 · 0% weight
adjusted Donalds +4.6
University of North FloridaDonalds +4.7
Jul 17 · A/B · 848 LV41 to 46 · 0% weight
adjusted Donalds +3.0
Kaplan StrategiesDonalds +5.1
Jun 09 · B- · 668 LV30 to 35 · 0% weight
Partisan sponsor
Change ResearchJolly +4
May 16 · C+ · 1,593 LV46 to 42 · 0% weight
Partisan sponsoradjusted Jolly +1.4
Cherry CommunicationsDonalds +8
May 09 · B/C · 604 LV39 to 47 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Donalds +5.0
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchDonalds +7
Apr 13 · B/C · 848 LV40 to 47 · 0% weight
adjusted Donalds +4.6
Echelon InsightsDonalds +6
Apr 09 · A- · 406 LV43 to 49 · 0% weight
adjusted Donalds +5.7
MDW CommunicationsDonalds +0.7
Apr 03 · unrated · 1,834 LV41 to 41 · 0% weight
Emerson CollegeDonalds +4.8
Mar 31 · A · 1,125 LV39 to 44 · 0% weight
adjusted Donalds +2.9
University of North FloridaDonalds +6
Mar 02 · A/B · 776 LV36 to 42 · 0% weight
adjusted Donalds +4.3
The Public Sentiment InstituteJolly +6.5
Feb 20 · unrated · 124 LV42 to 36 · 0% weight
Targoz Market ResearchDonalds +5
Feb 16 · B-36 to 41 · 0% weight
adjusted Donalds +2.6
University of North FloridaDonalds +11
Oct 25 · A/B · 728 LV34 to 45 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Donalds +12.3
Targoz Market ResearchDonalds +4
Sep 18 · B- · 1,118 RV32 to 36 · 0% weight
adjusted Donalds +1.6
Bendixen & Amandi InternationalJolly +1
Sep 09 · B/C · 631 LV41 to 40 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Donalds +2.0
McLaughlin & AssociatesDonalds +8
Aug 27 · B/C · 800 LV41 to 49 · 0% weight
adjusted Donalds +6.2
Victory InsightsDonalds +5.3
Jun 10 · B/C · 600 LV31 to 37 · 0% weight

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesRepublican sponsor	A/B	Oct 11	1,200LV	Donalds +739 to 46adjusted Donalds +4.0	13%
MDW Communications	unrated	Oct 10	2,351LV	Donalds +2.144 to 46	15%
Change ResearchPartisan sponsor	C+	Oct 10	920LV	Tie47 to 47adjusted Donalds +2.6	7%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	B/C	Oct 09	716LV	Donalds +1141 to 52adjusted Donalds +8.6	8%
St. Pete Polls	C+	Oct 07	836LV	Donalds +0.145 to 45	8%
YouGov	B	Oct 05	3,813LV	Donalds +245 to 47adjusted Donalds +2.2	24%
Targoz Market Research	B-	Oct 04	849LV	Donalds +1042 to 52adjusted Donalds +7.6	5%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.	A-	Oct 01	625LV	Donalds +741 to 48adjusted Donalds +6.2	11%
Change ResearchPartisan sponsor	C+	Sep 27	1,063LV	Jolly +248 to 46adjusted Donalds +0.6	3%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	B/C	Sep 21	830LV	Donalds +1239 to 51adjusted Donalds +9.6	2%
St. Pete Polls	C+	Sep 17	913LV	Donalds +0.143 to 44	2%
Change ResearchPartisan sponsor	C+	Sep 09	1,107LV	Jolly +347 to 44adjusted Jolly +0.4	1%
Hart Research AssociatesDemocratic sponsor	A-	Aug 13	600LV	Jolly +146 to 45adjusted Donalds +0.8	<1%
Targoz Market Research	B-	Jul 26	1,026LV	Donalds +738 to 45adjusted Donalds +4.6	0%
University of North Florida	A/B	Jul 17	848LV	Donalds +4.741 to 46adjusted Donalds +3.0	0%
Kaplan StrategiesPartisan sponsor	B-	Jun 09	668LV	Donalds +5.130 to 35	0%
Change ResearchPartisan sponsor	C+	May 16	1,593LV	Jolly +446 to 42adjusted Jolly +1.4	0%
Cherry CommunicationsRepublican sponsor	B/C	May 09	604LV	Donalds +839 to 47adjusted Donalds +5.0	0%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	B/C	Apr 13	848LV	Donalds +740 to 47adjusted Donalds +4.6	0%
Echelon Insights	A-	Apr 09	406LV	Donalds +643 to 49adjusted Donalds +5.7	0%
MDW Communications	unrated	Apr 03	1,834LV	Donalds +0.741 to 41	0%
Emerson College	A	Mar 31	1,125LV	Donalds +4.839 to 44adjusted Donalds +2.9	0%
University of North Florida	A/B	Mar 02	776LV	Donalds +636 to 42adjusted Donalds +4.3	0%
The Public Sentiment Institute	unrated	Feb 20	124LV	Jolly +6.542 to 36	0%
Targoz Market Research	B-	Feb 16	n/aLV	Donalds +536 to 41adjusted Donalds +2.6	0%
University of North FloridaDemocratic sponsor	A/B	Oct 25	728LV	Donalds +1134 to 45adjusted Donalds +12.3	0%
Targoz Market Research	B-	Sep 18	1,118RV	Donalds +432 to 36adjusted Donalds +1.6	0%
Bendixen & Amandi InternationalDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Sep 09	631LV	Jolly +141 to 40adjusted Donalds +2.0	0%
McLaughlin & Associates	B/C	Aug 27	800LV	Donalds +841 to 49adjusted Donalds +6.2	0%
Victory Insights	B/C	Jun 10	600LV	Donalds +5.331 to 37	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Ron DeSantis (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot: David Jolly (D) vs Byron Donalds (R). Also on the ballot: Dean Abrams, Charles Burkett, Jeffrey Datto, Moe Dimanche, Scott Jewett, Frank Russo
Last time: 2022: Ron DeSantis (R) 59.4, Charlie Crist (D) 40.0. DeSantis by 19.4.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
The raters: Cook Lean R · Sabato Lean R · Inside Elections Lean R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
David Jolly
Jolly on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Byron Donalds
Donalds on Ballotpedia ↗

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