T-minus 16 days
● Governor // Race file
[ Governor // Iowa ]
Iowa governor
Rob Sand (D)vsZach Lahn (R)
open seat · Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D
7 in 10
Rob Sand favored74%
Likely for Rob Sand: a 74 percent chance of winning. Polls: Rob Sand up 7.6.
- Office:Open seat
- Cook:Lean D
- Sabato:Lean D
- Inside Elections:Tilt D
- Odds:Sand 74%
- Margin:Sand +3.8, give or take 4.5
- Polls:19, averaging Sand +7.6
- Latest poll:YouGov, Oct 12, Sand +6.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Sand +3.8
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Sand +3.8
- Uncertainty
- 4.5 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Lahn +1.9 to Sand +9.5 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Sand +7.6 across 19 polls, worth 3.5 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Lahn +4.5 before any polls, give or take 8.0
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Sand ahead is positive, Lahn ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 19 public polls
- YouGovSand +6Oct 12 · B · 2,244 LV50 to 44 · 24% weightadjusted Sand +5.8
- Marist UniversitySand +7Oct 11 · A- · 1,100 LV52 to 45 · 20% weightadjusted Sand +6.1
- Emerson CollegeSand +3.7Oct 06 · A · 650 LV49 to 45 · 10% weightadjusted Sand +5.6
- CNN/SSRSSand +9Oct 05 · unrated · 801 LV51 to 42 · 9% weightadjusted Sand +8.1
- Suffolk UniversitySand +12Oct 04 · A- · 500 LV55 to 43 · 9% weightadjusted Sand +10.3
- The New York Times/Siena UniversitySand +11.2Oct 01 · A · 606 LV52 to 41 · 9% weightadjusted Sand +12.0
- Sep 28 · A- · 1,008 LV53 to 44 · 8% weightadjusted Sand +9.2
- Marist UniversitySand +12Sep 20 · A- · 1,050 RV54 to 42 · 4% weightadjusted Sand +11.1
- co/efficientSand +4Sep 16 · B · 831 LV46 to 42 · 3% weightadjusted Sand +7.0
- Cygnal PoliticalSand +3.4Sep 11 · A · 500 LV48 to 44 · 1% weightRepublican sponsoradjusted Sand +7.7
- YouGovSand +10Sep 08 · B · 2,041 LV51 to 41 · 2% weightadjusted Sand +9.8
- Emerson CollegeSand +3.1Sep 01 · A · 750 LV49 to 46 · 1% weightadjusted Sand +5.0
- Wedgewood PollsSand +5Aug 29 · unrated · 600 LV51 to 46 · 1% weightadjusted Sand +6.8
- Suffolk UniversitySand +4.2Aug 23 · A- · 500 LV48 to 44 · <1% weightadjusted Sand +2.5
- Emerson CollegeSand +5.7Aug 04 · A · 712 LV48 to 43 · 0% weightadjusted Sand +7.6
- Jun 27 · A- · 1,003 RV53 to 44 · 0% weightadjusted Sand +9.2
- The New York Times/Siena UniversitySand +1.6Jun 27 · A · 600 LV48 to 47 · 0% weightadjusted Sand +2.5
- Cygnal PoliticalSand +4.3Jun 19 · A · 600 LV48 to 43 · 0% weightRepublican sponsoradjusted Sand +8.6
- Global Strategy GroupSand +9Apr 28 · B/C50 to 41 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Sand +6.1
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | B | Oct 12 | 2,244LV | Sand +650 to 44adjusted Sand +5.8 | 24% |
| Marist University | A- | Oct 11 | 1,100LV | Sand +752 to 45adjusted Sand +6.1 | 20% |
| Emerson College | A | Oct 06 | 650LV | Sand +3.749 to 45adjusted Sand +5.6 | 10% |
| CNN/SSRS | unrated | Oct 05 | 801LV | Sand +951 to 42adjusted Sand +8.1 | 9% |
| Suffolk University | A- | Oct 04 | 500LV | Sand +1255 to 43adjusted Sand +10.3 | 9% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Oct 01 | 606LV | Sand +11.252 to 41adjusted Sand +12.0 | 9% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | A- | Sep 28 | 1,008LV | Sand +953 to 44adjusted Sand +9.2 | 8% |
| Marist University | A- | Sep 20 | 1,050RV | Sand +1254 to 42adjusted Sand +11.1 | 4% |
| co/efficient | B | Sep 16 | 831LV | Sand +446 to 42adjusted Sand +7.0 | 3% |
| Cygnal PoliticalRepublican sponsor | A | Sep 11 | 500LV | Sand +3.448 to 44adjusted Sand +7.7 | 1% |
| YouGov | B | Sep 08 | 2,041LV | Sand +1051 to 41adjusted Sand +9.8 | 2% |
| Emerson College | A | Sep 01 | 750LV | Sand +3.149 to 46adjusted Sand +5.0 | 1% |
| Wedgewood Polls | unrated | Aug 29 | 600LV | Sand +551 to 46adjusted Sand +6.8 | 1% |
| Suffolk University | A- | Aug 23 | 500LV | Sand +4.248 to 44adjusted Sand +2.5 | <1% |
| Emerson College | A | Aug 04 | 712LV | Sand +5.748 to 43adjusted Sand +7.6 | 0% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | A- | Jun 27 | 1,003RV | Sand +953 to 44adjusted Sand +9.2 | 0% |
| The New York Times/Siena University | A | Jun 27 | 600LV | Sand +1.648 to 47adjusted Sand +2.5 | 0% |
| Cygnal PoliticalRepublican sponsor | A | Jun 19 | 600LV | Sand +4.348 to 43adjusted Sand +8.6 | 0% |
| Global Strategy GroupDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Apr 28 | n/aLV | Sand +950 to 41adjusted Sand +6.1 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Kim Reynolds (R) is retiring. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- Rob Sand (D) vs Zach Lahn (R). Also on the ballot: Sondra Wilson
- Last time
- 2022: Kim Reynolds (R) 58.0, Deidre DeJear (D) 39.5. Reynolds by 18.5.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 55.7, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.2.
- The raters
- Cook Lean D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tilt D
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ The rules // Governors
Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Rob Sand
Sand on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Zach Lahn
Lahn on Ballotpedia ↗