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T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Maine ]

Maine governor

Hannah Pingree (D)vsBobby Charles (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Hannah Pingree favored>99%

All but certain for Hannah Pingree: a 99 percent chance of winning. Polls: Hannah Pingree up 11.2.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Likely D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Pingree >99%
  • Margin:Pingree +13.5, give or take 4.5
  • Polls:15, averaging Pingree +11.2
  • Latest poll:Suffolk University, Oct 11, Pingree +11.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Pingree +13.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Pingree +13.5
Uncertainty
4.5 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Pingree +7.8 to Pingree +19.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Pingree +11.2 across 15 polls, worth 2.7 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Pingree +18.6 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pingree ahead is positive, Charles ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 15 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Janet Mills (D) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Hannah Pingree (D) vs Bobby Charles (R). Also on the ballot: Rick Bennett
Last time
2022: Janet Mills (D) 55.7, Paul LePage (R) 42.4. Mills by 13.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 45.5, Harris 52.4. Harris by 6.9.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Likely D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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