Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Minnesota ]

Minnesota governor

Amy Klobuchar (D)vsLisa Demuth (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Likely D

9 in 10

Amy Klobuchar favored96%

Very likely for Amy Klobuchar: a 96 percent chance of winning. Polls: Amy Klobuchar up 8.1.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Likely D
  • Odds:Klobuchar 96%
  • Margin:Klobuchar +11.3, give or take 5.4
  • Polls:10, averaging Klobuchar +8.1
  • Latest poll:SurveyUSA, Oct 12, Klobuchar +7.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Klobuchar +11.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Klobuchar +11.3
Uncertainty
5.4 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Klobuchar +4.3 to Klobuchar +18.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Klobuchar +8.1 across 10 polls, worth 1.8 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Klobuchar +15.1 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Klobuchar ahead is positive, Demuth ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 10 public polls

  • SurveyUSAKlobuchar +7
    Oct 12 · A · 718 LV48 to 41 · 30% weight
    adjusted Klobuchar +6.2
  • Morning ConsultKlobuchar +9
    Oct 07 · C+ · 1,000 RV48 to 39 · 27% weight
  • Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.Klobuchar +9
    Oct 07 · A- · 800 LV50 to 41 · 29% weight
    adjusted Klobuchar +9.8
  • co/efficientKlobuchar +2
    Sep 15 · B · 833 LV47 to 45 · 7% weight
    adjusted Klobuchar +5.0
  • SurveyUSAKlobuchar +7
    Sep 14 · A · 654 LV47 to 40 · 4% weight
    adjusted Klobuchar +6.2
  • TIPP InsightsKlobuchar +9.8
    Sep 02 · A · 1,192 LV50 to 40 · 3% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Klobuchar +9.9
  • SurveyUSAKlobuchar +16
    Aug 17 · A · 661 LV52 to 36 · 1% weight
    adjusted Klobuchar +15.2
  • Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.Klobuchar +8
    Jun 10 · A- · 800 LV48 to 40 · 0% weight
    adjusted Klobuchar +8.8
  • Emerson CollegeKlobuchar +13.4
    Feb 08 · A · 1,000 LV51 to 38 · 0% weight
    adjusted Klobuchar +15.3
  • SurveyUSAKlobuchar +15
    Jan 30 · A · 575 RV49 to 34 · 0% weight
    adjusted Klobuchar +14.2

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tim Walz (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Lisa Demuth (R). Also on the ballot: Steven Young
Last time
2022: Tim Walz (D) 52.3, Scott Jensen (R) 44.6. Walz by 7.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 46.7, Harris 50.9. Harris by 4.2.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Likely D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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