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T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Nebraska ]

Nebraska governor

Lynne Walz (D)vsJim Pillen (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Likely R

9 in 10

Jim Pillen favored91%

Very likely for Jim Pillen: a 91 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jim Pillen up 2.7.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Likely R
  • Sabato:Likely R
  • Inside Elections:Likely R
  • Odds:Pillen 91%
  • Margin:Pillen +8.2, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:8, averaging Pillen +2.7
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Oct 14, Pillen +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Pillen +8.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Pillen +8.2
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Pillen +14.7 to Pillen +1.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Pillen +2.7 across 8 polls, worth 1.7 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Pillen +13.1 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Walz ahead is positive, Pillen ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 8 public polls

  • Public Policy PollingPillen +1
    Oct 14 · B+ · 571 LV43 to 44 · 15% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Pillen +2.3
  • YouGovPillen +1
    Oct 03 · B · 1,808 LV43 to 44 · 41% weight
    adjusted Pillen +1.2
  • co/efficientPillen +4
    Sep 30 · B · 1,113 LV38 to 42 · 25% weight
    adjusted Pillen +1.0
  • Wedgewood PollsPillen +17
    Sep 16 · unrated · 500 LV36 to 53 · 5% weight
    adjusted Pillen +15.2
  • Lake Research PartnersTie
    Sep 14 · A/B · 900 LV40 to 40 · 4% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Pillen +3.0
  • SurveyUSAPillen +8
    Sep 13 · A · 503 LV35 to 43 · 8% weight
    adjusted Pillen +8.8
  • Public Policy PollingPillen +1
    Sep 02 · B+ · 559 RV31 to 32 · 1% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Pillen +2.3
  • Public Policy PollingPillen +5
    Apr 07 · B+ · 670 RV33 to 38 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Pillen +6.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jim Pillen (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Lynne Walz (D) vs Jim Pillen (R, incumbent). Also on the ballot: Rick Beard, Brett Lindstrom
Last time
2022: Jim Pillen (R) 59.7, Carol Blood (D) 36.3. Pillen by 23.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 59.3, Harris 38.9. Trump by 20.5.
The raters
Cook Likely R · Sabato Likely R · Inside Elections Likely R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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