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T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // New Hampshire ]

New Hampshire governor

Cinde Warmington (D)vsKelly Ayotte (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Solid R

6 in 10

Kelly Ayotte favored60%

A slight edge for Kelly Ayotte: a 60 percent chance of winning. Polls: Kelly Ayotte up 9.5.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Likely R
  • Sabato:Likely R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Ayotte 60%
  • Margin:Ayotte +1.6, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:11, averaging Ayotte +9.5
  • Latest poll:YouGov, Oct 05, Ayotte +9.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ayotte +1.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Ayotte +1.6
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Ayotte +8.1 to Warmington +4.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
Ayotte +9.5 across 11 polls, worth 1.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Warmington +5.4 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Warmington ahead is positive, Ayotte ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 11 public polls

  • YouGovAyotte +9
    Oct 05 · B · 1,520 LV40 to 49 · 50% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +9.2
  • St. AnselmAyotte +7
    Sep 29 · A/B · 1,042 LV45 to 52 · 15% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +7.6
  • The New York Times/Siena UniversityAyotte +11.5
    Sep 22 · A · 613 LV41 to 52 · 19% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +10.7
  • University of New HampshireAyotte +4
    Sep 21 · B- · 1,407 LV43 to 47 · 7% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +3.3
  • co/efficientAyotte +21
    Sep 11 · B · 958 LV34 to 55 · 7% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +18.0
  • University of New HampshireAyotte +10
    Aug 24 · B- · 1,878 LV39 to 49 · 1% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +9.3
  • St. AnselmAyotte +11
    Aug 18 · A/B · 1,411 LV38 to 49 · 1% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +11.6
  • St. AnselmAyotte +8
    Jun 25 · A/B · 1,614 RV37 to 45 · 0% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +8.6
  • University of New HampshireAyotte +5
    Jun 23 · B- · 2,221 LV39 to 44 · 0% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +4.3
  • University of New HampshireAyotte +8
    Apr 21 · B- · 1,117 LV39 to 47 · 0% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +7.3
  • St. AnselmAyotte +7
    Mar 18 · A/B · 1,491 RV39 to 46 · 0% weight
    adjusted Ayotte +7.6

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kelly Ayotte (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Cinde Warmington (D) vs Kelly Ayotte (R, incumbent). Also on the ballot: Jon Kiper
Last time
2024: Kelly Ayotte (R) 53.6, Joyce Craig (D) 44.3. Ayotte by 9.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 47.9, Harris 50.6. Harris by 2.8.
The raters
Cook Likely R · Sabato Likely R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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