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T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // New York ]

New York governor

Kathy Hochul (D)vsBruce Blakeman (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Likely D

99 in 100

Kathy Hochul favored>99%

All but certain for Kathy Hochul: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Kathy Hochul up 14.7.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Likely D
  • Odds:Hochul >99%
  • Margin:Hochul +18.2, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:25, averaging Hochul +14.7
  • Latest poll:Beacon Research, Oct 06, Hochul +22.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hochul +18.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hochul +18.2
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hochul +11.7 to Hochul +24.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Hochul +14.7 across 25 polls, worth 1.7 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Hochul +21.4 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hochul ahead is positive, Blakeman ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 25 public polls

  • Beacon ResearchHochul +22
    Oct 06 · B/C · 820 RV53 to 31 · 19% weight
    Partisan sponsor
  • Emerson CollegeHochul +12.7
    Oct 05 · A · 900 LV52 to 40 · 33% weight
    adjusted Hochul +14.5
  • Marist UniversityHochul +11
    Oct 04 · A- · 1,361 RV53 to 42 · 24% weight
    adjusted Hochul +10.1
  • co/efficientHochul +7
    Sep 25 · B · 1,046 LV48 to 41 · 9% weight
    adjusted Hochul +10.0
  • Quinnipiac UniversityHochul +19
    Sep 20 · B+ · 1,026 LV58 to 39 · 10% weight
    adjusted Hochul +19.7
  • Siena UniversityHochul +9
    Sep 17 · A · 1,144 LV50 to 41 · 3% weight
    adjusted Hochul +6.3
  • McLaughlin & AssociatesHochul +3.9
    Aug 31 · B/C · 800 LV50 to 46 · 1% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hochul +8.7
  • Concord Public Opinion PartnersHochul +16
    Aug 21 · A/B · 505 LV50 to 34 · 1% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Hochul +13.0
  • Siena UniversityHochul +10
    Aug 06 · A · 811 LV49 to 39 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +7.3
  • Moxie StrategiesHochul +12
    Jul 28 · unrated · 813 adults49 to 37 · 0% weight
  • Red Oak StrategicHochul +4
    Jul 12 · B/C · 2,000 RV47 to 43 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hochul +7.0
  • co/efficientHochul +6
    Jul 02 · B · 1,085 LV47 to 41 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +9.0
  • Siena UniversityHochul +20
    Jun 23 · A · 1,120 RV52 to 32 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +17.3
  • Siena UniversityHochul +16
    Apr 30 · A · 806 RV49 to 33 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +13.3
  • Siena UniversityHochul +13
    Mar 26 · A · 804 RV47 to 34 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +10.3
  • Echelon InsightsHochul +15
    Mar 26 · A- · 500 LV55 to 40 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +15.3
  • McLaughlin & AssociatesHochul +9
    Mar 08 · B/C · 800 LV52 to 43 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Hochul +13.8
  • Siena UniversityHochul +20
    Feb 26 · A · 805 RV51 to 31 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +17.3
  • Marist UniversityHochul +17
    Feb 19 · A- · 1,442 RV50 to 33 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +16.1
  • MAD Global StrategyHochul +13
    Feb 04 · unrated · 600 LV47 to 34 · 0% weight
  • Siena UniversityHochul +26
    Jan 28 · A · 802 RV54 to 28 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +23.3
  • John Zogby StrategiesHochul +15
    Jan 08 · B/C · 844 LV49 to 34 · 0% weight
  • Siena UniversityHochul +25
    Dec 12 · A · 801 RV50 to 25 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +22.3
  • J.L. PartnersHochul +11
    Nov 10 · B/C · 500 LV47 to 36 · 0% weight
  • Siena UniversityHochul +25
    Jun 26 · A · 800 RV44 to 19 · 0% weight
    adjusted Hochul +22.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kathy Hochul (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kathy Hochul (D, incumbent) vs Bruce Blakeman (R)
Last time
2022: Kathy Hochul (D) 53.2, Lee Zeldin (R) 46.8. Hochul by 6.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Likely D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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