Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the map

● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Ohio ]

Ohio governor

Amy Acton (D)vsVivek Ramaswamy (R)

open seat · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup

6 in 10

Amy Acton favored62%

A slight edge for Amy Acton: a 62 percent chance of winning. Polls: Amy Acton up 4.7.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Tossup
  • Sabato:Tossup
  • Inside Elections:Tossup
  • Odds:Acton 62%
  • Margin:Acton +1.8, give or take 4.5
  • Polls:28, averaging Acton +4.7
  • Latest poll:Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov, Oct 09, Acton +6.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Acton +1.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Acton +1.8
Uncertainty
4.5 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Ramaswamy +3.9 to Acton +7.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
Acton +4.7 across 28 polls, worth 2.8 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Ramaswamy +4.6 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Acton ahead is positive, Ramaswamy ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 28 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike DeWine (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Amy Acton (D) vs Vivek Ramaswamy (R). Also on the ballot: Donald Kissick
Last time
2022: Mike DeWine (R) 62.4, Nan Whaley (D) 37.4. DeWine by 25.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.1, Harris 43.9. Trump by 11.2.
The raters
Cook Tossup · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tossup

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the map