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T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Rhode Island ]

Rhode Island governor

Helena Foulkes (D)vsAaron Guckian (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Helena Foulkes favored>99%

All but certain for Helena Foulkes: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Helena Foulkes up 35.1.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Foulkes >99%
  • Margin:Foulkes +30.5, give or take 5.4
  • Polls:5, averaging Foulkes +35.1
  • Latest poll:Emerson College, Oct 11, Foulkes +35.7
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Foulkes +30.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Foulkes +30.5
Uncertainty
5.4 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Foulkes +23.5 to Foulkes +37.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
Foulkes +35.1 across 5 polls, worth 1.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Foulkes +25.1 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Foulkes ahead is positive, Guckian ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 5 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Dan McKee (D) lost the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Helena Foulkes (D) vs Aaron Guckian (R). Also on the ballot: Ken Block, Jasjit Gotra, CD Reynolds
Last time
2022: Dan McKee (D) 57.9, Ashley Kalus (R) 38.9. McKee by 19.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.8, Harris 55.5. Harris by 13.8.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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