Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Texas ]

Texas governor

Gina Hinojosa (D)vsGreg Abbott (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Lean R

7 in 10

Greg Abbott favored68%

Likely for Greg Abbott: a 68 percent chance of winning. Polls: Greg Abbott up 1.9.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Lean R
  • Sabato:Lean R
  • Inside Elections:Lean R
  • Odds:Abbott 68%
  • Margin:Abbott +2.3, give or take 3.5
  • Polls:45, averaging Abbott +1.9
  • Latest poll:ActiVote, Oct 14, Abbott +1.8
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Abbott +2.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 3.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Abbott +2.3
Uncertainty
3.5 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Abbott +6.7 to Hinojosa +2.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Abbott +1.9 across 45 polls, worth 5.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Abbott +3.4 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hinojosa ahead is positive, Abbott ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 45 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Greg Abbott (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Gina Hinojosa (D) vs Greg Abbott (R, incumbent). Also on the ballot: Pat Dixon
Last time
2022: Greg Abbott (R) 54.8, Beto O'Rourke (D) 43.9. Abbott by 10.9.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
The raters
Cook Lean R · Sabato Lean R · Inside Elections Lean R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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