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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MT-02 ]

Montana's 2nd District

Brian Miller (D)vsTroy Downing (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+15 · Incumbent: Troy Downing (R)

99 in 100

Troy Downing favored>99%

All but certain for Troy Downing: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Troy Downing up 22.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+15
  • Incumbent:Troy Downing (R)
  • District:2 of 2 in Montana
  • Odds:Downing >99%
  • Margin:Downing +21.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Downing +22.0
  • Latest poll:Rutgers-Eagleton, Sep 07, Downing +22.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Downing +21.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Downing +21.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Downing +27.5 to Downing +15.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Downing +22.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Downing +20.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Miller ahead is positive, Downing ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Troy Downing (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Brian Miller (D) vs Troy Downing (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.0, Republican 66.0. Downing by 32.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.4, Harris 38.5. Trump by 19.9.
Lean
R+15 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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