Montana's 1st District

Sam Forstag (D)vsAaron Flint (R)

open seat · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Ryan Zinke (R), not running

6 in 10

Aaron Flint favored58%

A slight edge for Aaron Flint: a 58 percent chance of winning. Polls: Aaron Flint up 4.9.

Seat:Open seat
Lean:R+5
Incumbent:Ryan Zinke (R), not running
District:1 of 2 in Montana
Odds:Flint 58%
Margin:Flint +1.3, give or take 4.8
Polls:8, averaging Flint +4.9
Latest poll:American Pulse Research & Polling, Sep 24, Flint +9.3
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Flint +1.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Flint +1.3
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Flint +7.4 to Forstag +4.8 (80 percent)
Poll average: Flint +4.9 across 8 polls, worth 0.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Forstag +1.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Forstag ahead is positive, Flint ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 8 public polls

American Pulse Research & PollingFlint +9.3
Sep 24 · B/C · 314 LV37 to 46 · 50% weight
Impact ResearchForstag +3
Sep 23 · B/C · 500 LV47 to 44 · 22% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Flint +0.3
Public Policy PollingForstag +2
Sep 10 · B+ · 536 RV45 to 43 · 17% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Flint +1.9
Rutgers-EagletonFlint +1
Sep 07 · B/C · 375 RV41 to 42 · 11% weight
Impact ResearchTie
Jun 25 · B/C · 500 LV44 to 44 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Flint +3.3
Upswing ResearchFlint +4
May 05 · unrated · 401 LV43 to 47 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Flint +8.5
Peak InsightsFlint +10
Jan 15 · B/C · 400 LV38 to 48 · 0% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Flint +5.5
Tulchin ResearchForstag +4
Nov 25 · B/C · 424 LV47 to 43 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Flint +0.4

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
American Pulse Research & Polling	B/C	Sep 24	314LV	Flint +9.337 to 46	50%
Impact ResearchDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Sep 23	500LV	Forstag +347 to 44adjusted Flint +0.3	22%
Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor	B+	Sep 10	536RV	Forstag +245 to 43adjusted Flint +1.9	17%
Rutgers-Eagleton	B/C	Sep 07	375RV	Flint +141 to 42	11%
Impact ResearchDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Jun 25	500LV	Tie44 to 44adjusted Flint +3.3	0%
Upswing ResearchDemocratic sponsor	unrated	May 05	401LV	Flint +443 to 47adjusted Flint +8.5	0%
Peak InsightsRepublican sponsor	B/C	Jan 15	400LV	Flint +1038 to 48adjusted Flint +5.5	0%
Tulchin ResearchDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Nov 25	424LV	Forstag +447 to 43adjusted Flint +0.4	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Ryan Zinke (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot: Sam Forstag (D) vs Aaron Flint (R)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 44.6, Republican 52.3. Zinke by 7.7.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 58.4, Harris 38.5. Trump by 19.9.
Lean: R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Sam Forstag
Forstag on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Aaron Flint
Flint on Ballotpedia ↗

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