New Hampshire's 2nd District

Maggie Goodlander (D)vsLily Tang Williams (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+2 · Incumbent: Maggie Goodlander (D)

99 in 100

Maggie Goodlander favored>99%

All but certain for Maggie Goodlander: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Maggie Goodlander up 19.9.

Seat:Incumbent running
Lean:D+2
Incumbent:Maggie Goodlander (D)
District:2 of 2 in New Hampshire
Odds:Goodlander >99%
Margin:Goodlander +18.9, give or take 4.8
Polls:8, averaging Goodlander +19.9
Latest poll:University of New Hampshire, Sep 21, Goodlander +21.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Goodlander +18.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Goodlander +18.9
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Goodlander +12.8 to Goodlander +25.0 (80 percent)
Poll average: Goodlander +19.9 across 8 polls, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Goodlander +18.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Goodlander ahead is positive, Williams ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 8 public polls

University of New HampshireGoodlander +21
Sep 21 · B- · 694 LV56 to 35 · 86% weight
adjusted Goodlander +20.1
St. AnselmGoodlander +15
Aug 18 · A/B · 701 LV50 to 35 · 14% weight
adjusted Goodlander +18.0
St. AnselmGoodlander +19
Jun 25 · A/B · 802 RV50 to 31 · 0% weight
adjusted Goodlander +22.0
St. AnselmGoodlander +12
Mar 18 · A/B · 739 RV48 to 36 · 0% weight
adjusted Goodlander +15.0
University of New HampshireGoodlander +14
Jan 19 · B- · 1,094 LV54 to 40 · 0% weight
adjusted Goodlander +13.1
St. AnselmGoodlander +5
Nov 19 · A/B · 1,102 RV40 to 35 · 0% weight
adjusted Goodlander +8.0
University of New HampshireGoodlander +12
Sep 23 · B- · 508 LV51 to 39 · 0% weight
adjusted Goodlander +11.1
St. AnselmGoodlander +18
Aug 27 · A/B · 881 RV49 to 31 · 0% weight
adjusted Goodlander +21.0

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
University of New Hampshire	B-	Sep 21	694LV	Goodlander +2156 to 35adjusted Goodlander +20.1	86%
St. Anselm	A/B	Aug 18	701LV	Goodlander +1550 to 35adjusted Goodlander +18.0	14%
St. Anselm	A/B	Jun 25	802RV	Goodlander +1950 to 31adjusted Goodlander +22.0	0%
St. Anselm	A/B	Mar 18	739RV	Goodlander +1248 to 36adjusted Goodlander +15.0	0%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Jan 19	1,094LV	Goodlander +1454 to 40adjusted Goodlander +13.1	0%
St. Anselm	A/B	Nov 19	1,102RV	Goodlander +540 to 35adjusted Goodlander +8.0	0%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Sep 23	508LV	Goodlander +1251 to 39adjusted Goodlander +11.1	0%
St. Anselm	A/B	Aug 27	881RV	Goodlander +1849 to 31adjusted Goodlander +21.0	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Maggie Goodlander (D), running for another term.
On the ballot: Maggie Goodlander (D, incumbent) vs Lily Tang Williams (R)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 53.0, Republican 47.0. Goodlander by 6.0.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 47.9, Harris 50.6. Harris by 2.8.
Lean: D+2 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Maggie Goodlander
Goodlander on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Lily Tang Williams
Williams on Ballotpedia ↗

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