Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // HI-01 ]

Hawaii's 1st District

Ed Case (D)vsAdriel Lam (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+13 · Incumbent: Ed Case (D)

99 in 100

Ed Case favored>99%

All but certain for Ed Case: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+13
  • Incumbent:Ed Case (D)
  • District:1 of 2 in Hawaii
  • Odds:Case >99%
  • Margin:Case +37.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Case +37.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Case +37.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Case +29.4 to Case +45.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Case +37.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Case ahead is positive, Lam ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+13, worth 22.6 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Ed Case, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Case +37.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ed Case (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ed Case (D, incumbent) vs Adriel Lam (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 71.8, Republican 28.2. Case by 43.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 37.5, Harris 60.6. Harris by 23.1.
Lean
D+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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