Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // HI-02 ]

Hawaii's 2nd District

Jill Tokuda (D)vsBrenton Awa (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+12 · Incumbent: Jill Tokuda (D)

99 in 100

Jill Tokuda favored>99%

All but certain for Jill Tokuda: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+12
  • Incumbent:Jill Tokuda (D)
  • District:2 of 2 in Hawaii
  • Odds:Tokuda >99%
  • Margin:Tokuda +35.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Tokuda +35.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Tokuda +35.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Tokuda +27.6 to Tokuda +43.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Tokuda +35.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Tokuda ahead is positive, Awa ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+12, worth 20.9 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Jill Tokuda, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Tokuda +35.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jill Tokuda (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jill Tokuda (D, incumbent) vs Brenton Awa (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 66.5, Republican 30.2. Tokuda by 36.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 37.5, Harris 60.6. Harris by 23.1.
Lean
D+12 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats