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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // IA-02 ]

Iowa's 2nd District

Lindsay James (D)vsJoe Mitchell (R)

open seat · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: Ashley Hinson (R), not running

a coin flip

Too close to call55%

The model gives Lindsay James a 55 percent chance and Joe Mitchell 45 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: Joe Mitchell up 2.1.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+4
  • Incumbent:Ashley Hinson (R), not running
  • District:2 of 4 in Iowa
  • Odds:a coin flip, James 55%
  • Margin:James +0.8, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Mitchell +2.1
  • Latest poll:Global Strategy Group, Jul 19, James +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

James +0.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
James +0.8
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mitchell +5.3 to James +6.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
Mitchell +2.1 across 2 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
James +2.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: James ahead is positive, Mitchell ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Global Strategy GroupJames +1
    Jul 19 · B/C46 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Mitchell +2.1
  • Public Policy PollingJames +3
    Apr 14 · B+ · 673 RV36 to 33 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Mitchell +0.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ashley Hinson (R) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Lindsay James (D) vs Joe Mitchell (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 41.6, Republican 57.1. Hinson by 15.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.7, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.2.
Lean
R+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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