Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // IA-04 ]

Iowa's 4th District

David Dawson (D)vsChris McGowan (R)

open seat · Lean: R+15 · Incumbent: Randy Feenstra (R), not running

9 in 10

Chris McGowan favored99%

All but certain for Chris McGowan: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+15
  • Incumbent:Randy Feenstra (R), not running
  • District:4 of 4 in Iowa
  • Odds:McGowan 99%
  • Margin:McGowan +16.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McGowan +16.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McGowan +16.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McGowan +24.1 to McGowan +8.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
McGowan +16.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Dawson ahead is positive, McGowan ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+15, worth 26.1 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of McGowan +16.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Randy Feenstra (R) is running for governor instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
David Dawson (D) vs Chris McGowan (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 32.8, Republican 67.2. Feenstra by 34.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.7, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.2.
Lean
R+15 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats