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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // ID-01 ]

Idaho's 1st District

Kaylee Peterson (D)vsRuss Fulcher (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+22 · Incumbent: Russ Fulcher (R)

99 in 100

Russ Fulcher favored>99%

All but certain for Russ Fulcher: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Russ Fulcher up 17.6.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+22
  • Incumbent:Russ Fulcher (R)
  • District:1 of 2 in Idaho
  • Odds:Fulcher >99%
  • Margin:Fulcher +26.7, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Fulcher +17.6
  • Latest poll:Change Research, Jul 30, Fulcher +21.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Fulcher +26.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Fulcher +26.7
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Fulcher +32.8 to Fulcher +20.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Fulcher +17.6 across 2 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Fulcher +33.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Peterson ahead is positive, Fulcher ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Change ResearchFulcher +21
    Jul 30 · C+27 to 48 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Fulcher +22.3
  • SurveyUSAFulcher +10
    Jul 14 · A · 480 LV35 to 45 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Fulcher +9.7

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Russ Fulcher (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kaylee Peterson (D) vs Russ Fulcher (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 25.4, Republican 71.0. Fulcher by 45.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.9, Harris 30.4. Trump by 36.5.
Lean
R+22 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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