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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // ID-02 ]

Idaho's 2nd District

Ellie Gilbreath (D)vsMike Simpson (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+13 · Incumbent: Mike Simpson (R)

99 in 100

Mike Simpson favored>99%

All but certain for Mike Simpson: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+13
  • Incumbent:Mike Simpson (R)
  • District:2 of 2 in Idaho
  • Odds:Simpson >99%
  • Margin:Simpson +17.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Simpson +17.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Simpson +17.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Simpson +25.4 to Simpson +9.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Simpson +17.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gilbreath ahead is positive, Simpson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+13, worth 22.6 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Mike Simpson, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Simpson +17.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Simpson (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ellie Gilbreath (D) vs Mike Simpson (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 31.0, Republican 61.4. Simpson by 30.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.9, Harris 30.4. Trump by 36.5.
Lean
R+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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