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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // ME-01 ]

Maine's 1st District

Chellie Pingree (D)vsRonald Russell (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+11 · Incumbent: Chellie Pingree (D)

99 in 100

Chellie Pingree favored>99%

All but certain for Chellie Pingree: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Chellie Pingree up 21.1.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+11
  • Incumbent:Chellie Pingree (D)
  • District:1 of 2 in Maine
  • Odds:Pingree >99%
  • Margin:Pingree +28.6, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Pingree +21.1
  • Latest poll:University of New Hampshire, Sep 21, Pingree +22.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Pingree +28.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Pingree +28.6
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Pingree +22.5 to Pingree +34.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Pingree +21.1 across 1 poll, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Pingree +33.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pingree ahead is positive, Russell ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Chellie Pingree (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Chellie Pingree (D, incumbent) vs Ronald Russell (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 58.7, Republican 36.4. Pingree by 22.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 45.5, Harris 52.4. Harris by 6.9.
Lean
D+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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