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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // ME-02 ]

Maine's 2nd District

Matthew Dunlap (D)vsPaul LePage (R)

open seat · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: Jared Golden (D), not running

6 in 10

Matthew Dunlap favored60%

A slight edge for Matthew Dunlap: a 60 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+4
  • Incumbent:Jared Golden (D), not running
  • District:2 of 2 in Maine
  • Odds:Dunlap 60%
  • Margin:Dunlap +1.7, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:15, averaging LePage +0.1
  • Latest poll:Tulchin Research, Oct 14, Dunlap +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Dunlap +1.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Dunlap +1.7
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
LePage +4.4 to Dunlap +7.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
LePage +0.1 across 15 polls, worth 1.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Dunlap +2.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Dunlap ahead is positive, LePage ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 15 public polls

  • Tulchin ResearchDunlap +4
    Oct 14 · B/C · 500 LV50 to 46 · 52% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted LePage +0.4
  • Tulchin ResearchDunlap +2
    Sep 30 · B/C · 500 LV50 to 48 · 21% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted LePage +2.4
  • University of New HampshireDunlap +6
    Sep 21 · B- · 622 LV51 to 45 · 17% weight
    adjusted Dunlap +5.1
  • Impact ResearchTie
    Sep 12 · B/C · 500 LV49 to 49 · 10% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted LePage +3.3
  • DCCC Targeting TeamLePage +1
    Aug 13 · B/C · 621 LV48 to 49 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted LePage +3.6
  • Tulchin ResearchDunlap +1
    Jul 16 · B/C · 600 LV49 to 48 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted LePage +3.4
  • Pan Atlantic SMS GroupDunlap +8
    May 18 · A/B · 418 LV49 to 41 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Dunlap +3.5
  • co/efficientLePage +7
    Apr 28 · B · 918 LV41 to 48 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted LePage +1.2
  • Upswing ResearchLePage +7
    Feb 27 · unrated · 403 LV45 to 52 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted LePage +11.5
  • University of New HampshireLePage +4
    Feb 16 · B- · 520 LV44 to 48 · 0% weight
    adjusted LePage +4.9
  • Pan Atlantic SMS GroupLePage +1
    Dec 07 · A/B · 387 LV43 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted LePage +5.5
  • University of New HampshireLePage +5
    Oct 21 · B- · 521 LV44 to 49 · 0% weight
    adjusted LePage +5.9
  • University of New HampshireLePage +3
    Jun 23 · B- · 394 adults47 to 50 · 0% weight
    adjusted LePage +3.9
  • Mellman GroupDunlap +1
    Jun 10 · B/C · 400 LV44 to 43 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted LePage +3.5
  • Ragnar Research PartnersLePage +5
    Apr 15 · B/C · 400 LV43 to 48 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted LePage +1.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jared Golden (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Matthew Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 50.3, Republican 49.7. Golden by 0.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 45.5, Harris 52.4. Harris by 6.9.
Lean
R+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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