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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // ND-01 ]

North Dakota at large

Trygve Hammer (D)vsJulie Fedorchak (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+18 · Incumbent: Julie Fedorchak (R)

99 in 100

Julie Fedorchak favored>99%

All but certain for Julie Fedorchak: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+18
  • Incumbent:Julie Fedorchak (R)
  • Odds:Fedorchak >99%
  • Margin:Fedorchak +26.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Fedorchak +26.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Fedorchak +26.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Fedorchak +34.1 to Fedorchak +18.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Fedorchak +26.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hammer ahead is positive, Fedorchak ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+18, worth 31.3 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Julie Fedorchak, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Fedorchak +26.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Julie Fedorchak (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Trygve Hammer (D) vs Julie Fedorchak (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 30.5, Republican 69.5. Fedorchak by 39.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 67.0, Harris 30.5. Trump by 36.4.
Lean
R+18 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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