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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NE-02 ]

Nebraska's 2nd District

Denise Powell (D)vsBrinker Harding (R)

open seat · Lean: D+3 · Incumbent: Don Bacon (R), not running

9 in 10

Denise Powell favored95%

Very likely for Denise Powell: a 95 percent chance of winning. Polls: Denise Powell up 4.3.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+3
  • Incumbent:Don Bacon (R), not running
  • District:2 of 3 in Nebraska
  • Odds:Powell 95%
  • Margin:Powell +10.6, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Powell +4.3
  • Latest poll:SurveyUSA, Sep 13, Powell +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Powell +10.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Powell +10.6
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Powell +4.5 to Powell +16.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Powell +4.3 across 2 polls, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Powell +15.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Powell ahead is positive, Harding ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • SurveyUSAPowell +4
    Sep 13 · A · 182 LV46 to 42 · 100% weight
    adjusted Powell +4.3
  • Public Policy PollingPowell +7
    Oct 23 · B+ · 594 RV46 to 39 · 0% weight
    adjusted Powell +7.6

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Don Bacon (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Denise Powell (D) vs Brinker Harding (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 49.1, Republican 50.9. Bacon by 1.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 59.3, Harris 38.9. Trump by 20.5.
Lean
D+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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