Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NE-03 ]

Nebraska's 3rd District

Becky Stille (D)vsAdrian Smith (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+27 · Incumbent: Adrian Smith (R)

99 in 100

Adrian Smith favored>99%

All but certain for Adrian Smith: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+27
  • Incumbent:Adrian Smith (R)
  • District:3 of 3 in Nebraska
  • Odds:Smith >99%
  • Margin:Smith +41.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Smith +41.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Smith +41.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Smith +49.7 to Smith +33.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Smith +41.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Stille ahead is positive, Smith ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+27, worth 47.0 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Adrian Smith, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Smith +41.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Adrian Smith (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Becky Stille (D) vs Adrian Smith (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 19.6, Republican 80.4. Smith by 60.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 59.3, Harris 38.9. Trump by 20.5.
Lean
R+27 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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