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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NM-01 ]

New Mexico's 1st District

Melanie Stansbury (D)vsDidi Okpareke (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+7 · Incumbent: Melanie Stansbury (D)

99 in 100

Melanie Stansbury favored>99%

All but certain for Melanie Stansbury: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Melanie Stansbury up 18.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+7
  • Incumbent:Melanie Stansbury (D)
  • District:1 of 3 in New Mexico
  • Odds:Stansbury >99%
  • Margin:Stansbury +23.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Stansbury +18.0
  • Latest poll:Research & Polling Inc., Oct 09, Stansbury +18.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Stansbury +23.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Stansbury +23.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Stansbury +17.1 to Stansbury +29.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Stansbury +18.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Stansbury +26.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Stansbury ahead is positive, Okpareke ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Melanie Stansbury (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Melanie Stansbury (D, incumbent) vs Didi Okpareke (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 56.4, Republican 43.6. Stansbury by 12.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 45.9, Harris 51.9. Harris by 6.0.
Lean
D+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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