Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NM-02 ]

New Mexico's 2nd District

Gabe Vasquez (D)vsGreg Cunningham (R)

incumbent running · Lean: an even district · Incumbent: Gabe Vasquez (D)

9 in 10

Gabe Vasquez favored95%

Very likely for Gabe Vasquez: a 95 percent chance of winning. Polls: Gabe Vasquez up 3.9.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:an even district
  • Incumbent:Gabe Vasquez (D)
  • District:2 of 3 in New Mexico
  • Odds:Vasquez 95%
  • Margin:Vasquez +10.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Vasquez +3.9
  • Latest poll:Research & Polling Inc., Oct 09, Vasquez +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Vasquez +10.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Vasquez +10.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Vasquez +4.1 to Vasquez +16.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Vasquez +3.9 across 3 polls, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Vasquez +14.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Vasquez ahead is positive, Cunningham ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • Research & Polling Inc.Vasquez +4
    Oct 09 · A+ · 383 LV48 to 44 · 92% weight
  • SurveyUSAVasquez +3
    Sep 02 · A · 554 LV46 to 43 · 8% weight
    adjusted Vasquez +3.3
  • co/efficientVasquez +2
    Apr 28 · B · 879 LV43 to 41 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Vasquez +7.8

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Gabe Vasquez (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Gabe Vasquez (D, incumbent) vs Greg Cunningham (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 52.1, Republican 47.9. Vasquez by 4.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 45.9, Harris 51.9. Harris by 6.0.
Lean
Even

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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